NWS Forecast
Thu, 19-Jul-2018 4:18
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny
Sunny
Tonight

Tonight: Clear then Patchy Fog
Clear then Patchy Fog
Friday

Friday: Patchy Fog then Sunny
Patchy Fog then Sunny
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny
Sunny
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Light Rain Likely
Light Rain Likely
Sunday

Sunday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And T-Storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms
Scattered Showers And T-Storms
Monday

Monday: Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Scattered Showers And T-Storms then Showers And T-Storms Likely
Hi 79 °FLo 52 °FHi 83 °FLo 53 °FHi 80 °FLo 60 °FHi 78 °FLo 67 °FHi 81 °F
 
OUR Forecast
10:00
This
afternoon
Clear
Clear
Tonight

Fog late
Fog late
Friday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
Friday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Saturday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
Saturday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Sunday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Sunday
night
Chance rain
Chance rain
Monday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 80°Low: 56°High: 84°Low: 59°High: 81°Low: 63°High: 82°Low: 67°High: 84°


NWS & Our Forecast Comparison for Hessville, NY

National Weather Service Forecast (NW), Actual Observed (Act), Our Forecast (WS)

2am Overnight Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 00Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 07-19-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-19-18 48   51 79   79 51   55 84   84 56   59 80   81 61   63 76   81
07-18-18 56 60.4 59 76 76.0 76 50   53 79   79 54   57 84   85 60   60 83   82
07-17-18 70 68.1 69 80 79.0 77 55 60.4 62 76 76.0 76 52   53 79   79 57   57 84   83
07-16-18 67 65.8 66 88 89.1 89 71 68.1 71 79 79.0 81 56 60.4 60 76 76.0 74 54   54 80   80
07-15-18 66 70.1 69 85 89.4 86 64 65.8 68 87 89.1 87 71 68.1 71 79 79.0 78 60 60.4 60 77 76.0 74
07-14-18 66 65.7 67 83 82.9 86 66 70.1 70 86 89.4 88 64 65.8 67 88 89.1 89 70 68.1 72 79 79.0 80
07-13-18 55 57.3 58 82 84.9 84 64 65.7 63 83 82.9 84 65 70.1 67 86 89.4 87 65 65.8 65 90 89.1 89
07-12-18 50 54.9 53 78 82.2 79 55 57.3 56 82 84.9 84 64 65.7 60 81 82.9 81 63 70.1 68 86 89.4 87
07-11-18 55 62.8 62 77 81.3 80 51 54.9 56 78 82.2 79 53 57.3 57 84 84.9 84 64 65.7 61 81 82.9 76
07-10-18 61 65.3 62 82 85.5 84 55 62.8 59 79 81.3 80 54 54.9 58 80 82.2 80 57 57.3 59 85 84.9 84
07-09-18 59 61.8 58 84 85.1 83 62 65.3 60 82 85.5 81 57 62.8 57 79 81.3 81 57 54.9 58 81 82.2 81
07-08-18 51 55.8 56 81 81.5 81 57 61.8 58 85 85.1 84 62 65.3 62 82 85.5 81 59 62.8 57 79 81.3 79
07-07-18 49 60.8 50 76 77.4 77 52 55.8 53 82 81.5 82 58 61.8 57 85 85.1 84 63 65.3 60 83 85.5 81
07-06-18 72 70.7 71 75 77.3 79 49 60.8 56 76 77.4 77 53 55.8 56 80 81.5 82 60 61.8 60 84 85.1 84
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 6 11 10 13 5 8 11 11 6 8 11 10 8 6 10 8
% Succ 46.2   84.6 76.9   100.0 41.7   66.7 91.7   91.7 54.5   72.7 100.0   90.9 80.0   60.0 100.0   80.0
Ave Error 4.0   2.1 2.1   1.6 4.5   2.7 1.7   1.5 3.3   2.8 1.5   1.5 2.2   3.0 1.4   2.2
Net Error -3.3   -1.5 -1.9   -0.8 -4.0   -1.4 -1.6   -0.9 -2.8   -1.5 -1.5   -1.4 -1.4   -1.2 -1.0   -2.0
Std Dev 2.9   2.7 1.6   1.1 1.7   1.4 1.4   1.1 1.4   1.7 1.0   0.7 1.8   1.3 0.9   1.7

7am Morning Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 06Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 07-19-18 at 7:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-19-18 79   78 54   55 84   84 56   59 80   81 61   63 77   82 67   66
07-18-18 77 76.0 76 50 52.2 53 81   80 53   57 85   84 61   60 82   82 61   65
07-17-18 78 79.0 78 58 60.4 61 77 76.0 77 51 52.2 54 79   79 54   57 84   84 61   63
07-16-18 89 89.1 89 71 68.1 70 80 79.0 78 57 60.4 61 76 76.0 73 53 52.2 54 80   79 58   58
07-15-18 84 89.4 88 65 65.8 68 86 89.1 89 71 68.1 71 79 79.0 79 60 60.4 60 76 76.0 76 54 52.2 55
07-14-18 84 82.9 88 67 70.1 69 86 89.4 88 63 65.8 67 88 89.1 89 71 68.1 73 79 79.0 80 60 60.4 62
07-13-18 82 84.9 84 64 65.7 63 83 82.9 84 65 70.1 67 86 89.4 87 65 65.8 65 89 89.1 89 70 68.1 71
07-12-18 78 57.3 79 55 82.2 57 81 84.9 83 63 65.7 62 82 82.9 83 65 70.1 67 86 89.4 88 65 65.8 65
07-11-18 78 81.3 79 52 54.9 56 78 57.3 79 54 82.2 58 82 84.9 84 64 65.7 60 79 82.9 76 63 70.1 62
07-10-18 81 85.5 85 53 62.8 60 77 81.3 79 51 54.9 58 79 57.3 80 57 82.2 58 84 84.9 84 65 65.7 65
07-09-18 84 85.1 85 61 65.3 62 79 85.5 82 56 62.8 57 79 81.3 80 56 54.9 57 82 57.3 82 60 82.2 59
07-08-18 82 81.5 81 57 61.8 57 84 85.1 84 61 65.3 61 83 85.5 83 58 62.8 59 79 81.3 81 57 54.9 59
07-07-18 75 77.4 79 53 55.8 54 81 81.5 82 59 61.8 57 85 85.1 84 64 65.3 60 83 85.5 83 61 62.8 58
07-06-18 75 77.3 79 50 60.8 54 75 77.4 78 53 55.8 55 80 81.5 82 60 61.8 60 85 85.1 85 64 65.3 63
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 10 11 8 10 8 11 7 7 10 10 8 6 8 8 8 6
% Succ 76.9   84.6 61.5   76.9 66.7   91.7 58.3   58.3 90.9   90.9 72.7   54.5 80.0   80.0 80.0   60.0
Ave Error 3.6   2.8 5.8   4.2 4.0   3.0 5.6   4.7 3.3   3.1 4.2   4.9 3.8   3.8 4.0   5.1
Net Error 0.0   1.8 -5.4   -3.2 -0.2   1.1 -5.1   -3.1 0.6   1.1 -3.3   -3.3 1.2   1.4 -2.9   -2.9
Std Dev 5.2   5.6 6.7   6.2 5.2   5.6 6.9   6.0 5.8   6.2 6.7   6.3 2.3   2.4 2.3   2.6

1pm Mid Day Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 12Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 07-19-18 at 10:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-19-18 79   80 56   56 84   84 56   59 80   81 61   63 77   82 67   67
07-18-18 77 76.0 76 50 52.2 53 81   80 53   57 85   84 61   60 82   82 61   65
07-17-18 80 79.0 78 57 60.4 61 77 76.0 77 51 52.2 54 79   79 54   57 84   84 61   63
07-16-18 88 89.1 91 71 68.1 72 80 79.0 78 57 60.4 62 76 76.0 74 53 52.2 53 80   79 58   58
07-15-18 85 89.4 88 65 65.8 67 86 89.1 89 71 68.1 71 79 79.0 79 60 60.4 60 76 76.0 76 54 52.2 55
07-14-18 84 82.9 84 67 70.1 69 86 89.4 84 63 65.8 68 88 89.1 88 71 68.1 71 79 79.0 79 60 60.4 61
07-13-18 84 84.9 85 62 65.7 64 83 82.9 87 65 70.1 68 86 89.4 87 65 65.8 67 89 89.1 88 70 68.1 72
07-12-18 78 82.2 81 56 57.3 58 82 84.9 84 63 65.7 63 82 82.9 81 65 70.1 68 86 89.4 88 65 65.8 66
07-11-18 78 81.3 80 52 54.9 56 78 82.2 79 54 57.3 58 82 84.9 84 64 65.7 62 79 82.9 76 63 70.1 66
07-10-18 85 85.5 86 53 62.8 61 77 81.3 79 51 54.9 58 79 82.2 81 57 57.3 59 84 84.9 84 65 65.7 64
07-09-18 84 85.1 85 60 65.3 62 81 85.5 81 56 62.8 57 79 81.3 80 56 54.9 57 82 82.2 82 60 57.3 58
07-08-18 82 81.5 81 57 61.8 58 84 85.1 84 61 65.3 62 83 85.5 83 58 62.8 57 79 81.3 81 57 54.9 58
07-07-18 75 77.4 75 53 55.8 53 81 81.5 81 59 61.8 57 85 85.1 84 64 65.3 61 83 85.5 82 61 62.8 60
07-06-18 75 77.3 79 50 60.8 54 75 77.4 78 53 55.8 55 80 81.5 82 60 61.8 58 85 85.1 85 64 65.3 60
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 11 13 8 10 9 9 8 10 11 11 9 7 9 9 9 7
% Succ 84.6   100.0 61.5   76.9 75.0   75.0 66.7   83.3 100.0   100.0 81.8   63.6 90.0   90.0 90.0   70.0
Ave Error 1.8   1.0 4.1   2.3 2.4   2.1 3.5   2.7 1.6   1.4 1.9   2.6 1.3   1.4 2.1   2.5
Net Error -1.3   -0.2 -3.7   -1.0 -2.0   -1.1 -3.0   -0.6 -1.6   -1.3 -1.0   -1.0 -1.3   -1.4 -0.4   -0.3
Std Dev 1.3   0.7 2.2   1.2 1.4   1.6 1.3   1.2 1.1   0.6 1.3   1.1 1.3   1.9 1.8   1.2

7pm Evening Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 18Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 07-18-18 at 7:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-18-18 48   53 79   80 51   57 84   84 56   61 80   81 61   65 76   81
07-17-18 56 60.4 60 76 76.0 76 50   53 79   80 54   56 84   85 60   61 83   82
07-16-18 69 68.1 71 80 79.0 78 55 60.4 62 76 76.0 74 52   53 79   79 57   58 84   83
07-15-18 64 65.8 69 87 89.1 90 71 68.1 71 79 79.0 79 56 60.4 60 76 76.0 76 54   55 80   81
07-14-18 67 70.1 69 85 89.4 86 64 65.8 67 87 89.1 87 71 68.1 72 79 79.0 78 60 60.4 60 77 76.0 74
07-13-18 66 65.7 66 84 82.9 86 66 70.1 69 86 89.4 87 64 65.8 68 88 89.1 89 70 68.1 72 79 79.0 79
07-12-18 57 57.3 59 82 84.9 84 64 65.7 63 83 82.9 82 65 70.1 69 86 89.4 88 65 65.8 66 90 89.1 89
07-11-18 51 54.9 55 78 82.2 79 55 57.3 57 82 84.9 84 64 65.7 61 81 82.9 78 63 70.1 66 86 89.4 86
07-10-18 55 62.8 61 77 81.3 80 51 54.9 55 78 82.2 80 53 57.3 58 84 84.9 85 64 65.7 62 81 82.9 77
07-09-18 61 65.3 62 82 85.5 83 55 62.8 58 79 81.3 79 54 54.9 55 80 82.2 81 57 57.3 57 85 84.9 85
07-08-18 59 61.8 60 84 85.1 84 62 65.3 63 82 85.5 83 57 62.8 58 79 81.3 81 57 54.9 59 81 82.2 83
07-07-18 54 55.8 55 81 81.5 81 57 61.8 58 85 61.8 85.184 62 65.3 62 82 85.5 81 59 62.8 58 79 81.3 79
07-06-18 49 60.8 50 76 77.4 77 52 55.8 53 82 81.5 82 58 61.8 57 85 85.1 84 63 65.3 60 83 85.5 81
07-05-18 71 70.7 72 77 77.3 78 49 60.8 54 76 77.4 76 53 55.8 56 80 81.5 82 60 61.8 60 84 85.1 85
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 12 10 13 5 9 10 11 6 7 11 9 8 4 10 8
% Succ 61.5   92.3 76.9   100.0 41.7   75.0 83.3   91.7 54.5   63.6 100.0   81.8 80.0   40.0 100.0   80.0
Ave Error 3.3   2.3 2.1   1.5 4.5   2.5 3.6   3.4 3.3   2.4 1.5   1.4 2.2   2.9 1.4   1.9
Net Error -3.1   -0.8 -1.7   -0.7 -4.0   -1.6 0.3   0.6 -2.8   -1.1 -1.5   -1.3 -1.4   -1.2 -1.0   -1.7
Std Dev 3.1   2.7 1.5   1.1 1.7   1.4 6.0   6.0 1.4   1.6 1.0   1.3 1.8   1.5 0.9   1.7

Script credited to Jim at jcweather.us.
Dual Image forecast icons credited to Ken at Saratoga-Weather.org.