Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 252057
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
457 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and damp tonight with chances for showers.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a cold
front approaches and moves across the region. Some thunderstorms may
produce strong to damaging wind gusts and locally very heavy
downpours. Fair and seasonable weather returns for Thursday in the
wake of the cold front as high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Steady rainfall will continue to taper off to showers for tonight
as the strong low level jet shifts eastward out of the area.
The heaviest rain has occurred to the south and east of the
Capital District. Basically looking at lull in the rain tonight
with only light QPF amounts expected as the warm front lifts its
way through. Temperatures will rise in the warm sector. Looking
at lows earlier this evening then temperatures rising into and
through the 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.

A cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday afternoon
into the evening. The big question is how much instability can
we achieve, will the clouds break up and can we get some
sunshine. It will be humid in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front with dew points forecast in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The
wind field will be very strong shear with 50 to 70 knots mid-
level flow forecast. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.
However can`t rule out the threat for the development of supercellular
structures if we get enough instability since will have a good
southerly flow at the surface. Precipitable water values near 2
inches means any storm will be capable of producing locally very
heavy downpours but with the flow storms will be moving.

A cooler and much less humid air mass will be ushered in with
the passage of the cold front. Dew points are expected to drop
into the 40s Wednesday night setting the stage for a pleasant
day Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This will be a more or less seasonable period with high temperatures
averaging mostly in the 60s during the end of this week...in the 50s
and lower 60s for the beginning of next week...bouncing back to
mostly the 60s by Tuesday.

A highly uncertain weather pattern of cool fronts and low pressure
systems will bring low probabilities of showers to the area through
the period, with the greatest chances expected in association with a
more pronounced system on Tuesday.  Overnight lows will stay above
freezing throughout the region all nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Steady rain is now transitioning to light showers, except
across KPOU where steadier rainfall is still occurring. The
showers will eventually transition to drizzle overnight, while
ceilings remain at IFR/LIFR. A warm front will also lift through
the region overnight, resulting in increased low level moisture
and LIFR CIGS. During the day tomorrow, some mixing could
occur, allowing CIGS to slightly improve but there will be a
chance for additional showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

Winds will mainly from the south today between 5 and 15 kts, turning
to the south-southwest behind the warm front. Some gusts remain
possible at KALB/KPSF through this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cloudy and damp tonight with chances for showers. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a cold front
approaches and moves across the region. Fair and seasonable
weather returns for Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread soaking rainfall across the region today. Heaviest
amounts have occurred to the south and east of the Capital
District. Basically looking at lull in the rain tonight with
only some light QPF expected. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a cold front
approaches and moves through. The heaviest rainfall Wednesday is
expected northwest of the Capital District across the
western/southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with an
additional 1/2 to 3/4 inch. Otherwise lesser amounts are
expected as you go to the south and east.

Storms Wednesday will be capable of producing locally very
heavy downpours which may cause localized urban/poor drainage
and low lying flooding especially for locations that received
heavier rain today.

Drier weather is then expected Thursday into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JLV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion