Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
FXUS61 KALY 102351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Calm, clear, and cold conditions are expected tonight beneath
high pressure. Seasonably cool and mainly dry weather is expected
through Thursday, with a few light snow showers possible Tuesday
night and again Thursday.


A narrow ridge of high pressure will continue to move in
tonight. Looking at a mostly clear skies and calm winds
overnight with favorable radiational cooling conditions.
This is especially over the southern Adirondacks and southern
Greens where a solid snowpack exists. Forecast on track only
some minor adjustments were needed. Expecting lows from the
single digits to upper teens; around 10 degrees below normal.


Split flow pattern continues with a couple of shortwaves
tracking through the region during the short term, but with
little moisture to work with, it looks like low-impact weather
continues. The first wave approaches late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Should see a good amount of sunshine Tuesday, especially
from the Capital District south and east, with mid and high
clouds increasing north and west. With the dry atmosphere, it
appears snow chances will be limited to areas west of the
Hudson, with some orographic enhancement possibly resulting in
some light snow showers over the southern Adirondacks Tuesday
evening into Tuesday night. A brief period of a few lake effect
snow showers looks likely Tuesday night, with some light snow
showers possibly making their way into the western Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie Valley, and eastern Catskills. Any
accumulation is expected to be little more than a dusting. Highs
Tuesday look to be a couple degrees short of normal, but lows
Tuesday night are expected to be near normal with increased
cloud cover.

Another ridge of high pressure builds in Wednesday/Wednesday
night. Expect some cold advection stratocu in the morning with
decreasing clouds for the afternoon. With a cold pocket of
around -10C at H850 overhead (actually not too far off from
normal), and some early cloud cover, highs are expected to be a
few degrees short of normal once again. Another chilly night is
expected Wednesday night with good radiational cooling
conditions, especially early, resulting in lows well below
normal. A light southeasterly flow may kick in late ahead of
the next system, allowing temps to recover late in some areas.

Thursday, a compact closed low approaches, which appears to have
better dynamics and more moisture to work with than the Tuesday
night system. Still, QPF looks to support little more than very
minor accumulations, but will at least expand slight chance
wording to cover the entire CWA. Uncertainty amongst the models
with respect to placement of the low, and therefore the ascent,
precludes anything higher than low chance PoPs at this time.
Highs once again look to come up a bit short of normal with
partly to mostly cloudy skies, with thermal profiles supporting
a p-type of snow.


We translate back to a pattern of cloudiness and unsettled weather
as we approach the weekend.  Low pressure over the Arklatex region
Thursday night will reach the Delmarva Peninsula on Saturday.  this
low will become elongated, extending back into the mid-Atlantic
region through the end of the weekend.

The greatest chance for precipitation will be with the main low
Friday night and Saturday, mainly in the form of snow in the higher
elevations, and rain elsewhere.  Saturday night through Monday will
feature just some pesky snow or rain shower activity of little
consequence, some of which might be lake-enhanced.

Daytime high temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s each day, with
lows in the upper teens and 20s Thursday night, and from around 30
degrees to the upper 30s Friday night, with readings gradually
progressing colder though each night.


A narrow ridge of high pressure will continue to move in
tonight. A weak warm front will lift north into the area
Tuesday associated with an approaching clipper low.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period; 00Z/Wednesday.
Looking at a mostly clear skies and calm winds overnight. A
light southerly flow will develop Tuesday with some cirrus
expected to stream overhead during the day. An increase in
cloud cover is expected by late in the day especially at KGFL
and KALB as the clipper low get closer to the area.


Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA.


No hydrologically significant precipitation is expected through
at least Thursday. Temperatures averaging below normal, and
mainly below freezing, will support expansion and thickening of
ice on area waterways.

A warm-up appears possible Friday into the weekend ahead of a
strong low pressure system approaching from the southern US.
There is still considerable uncertainty on the track of this
system and resulting QPF, but moderate to locally heavy
precipitation appears possible Friday night into the weekend as
the system transport tropical moisture northward.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




NEAR TERM...IAA/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion