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NY Extremes

============
for Saturday,
September 30, 2023
============
High Temp
78° F at Dansville, NY
Low Temp
40° F at Saranac Lake Adirondack Regional Ap, NY
Precipitation
0.39 in at Ny City Central Park, NY
============

USA Extremes

============
High Temp
101° F at Phoenix Airport, AZ
Low Temp
27° F at Kremmling Mcelroy Airfield, CO
Precipitation
3.83 in at Deland Municipal Airport Sydney H Taylor Field, FL
============
Data from
NWS CPC

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NWS Forecast
Sun, 01-Oct-2023 2:51
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Sunny
Sunny
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Monday

Monday: Patchy Fog then Sunny
Patchy Fog then Sunny
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Tuesday

Tuesday: Patchy Fog then Sunny
Patchy Fog then Sunny
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Wednesday

Wednesday: Patchy Fog then Sunny
Patchy Fog then Sunny
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Hi 76 °FLo 54 °FHi 75 °FLo 54 °FHi 80 °FLo 56 °FHi 82 °FLo 59 °FHi 78 °F
 
OUR Forecast
13:00
This
afternoon
Fair
Fair		Tonight

Fog late
Fog late		Monday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.		Monday
night
Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear		Tuesday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny		Tuesday
night
Clear
Clear		Wednesday

Sunny
Sunny		Wednesday
night
Clear
Clear		Thursday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
High: 75°Low: 55°High: 75°Low: 53°High: 78°Low: 54°High: 80°Low: 53°High: 77°


NWS & Our Forecast Comparison for Hessville, NY

National Weather Service Forecast (NW), Actual Observed (Act), Our Forecast (WS)

7am Morning Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 06Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 10-01-23 at 7:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-01-23 75   76 55   56 75   76 55   52 85   78 55   53 55   81 55   53
09-30-23 70 70.1 72 52 55.0 55 75   76 55   56 75   76 54   53 79   79 56   54
09-29-23 55 61.8 63 55 54.6 53 65 70.1 70 50 55.0 51 75   74 55   55 75   75 55   56
09-28-23 67 65.6 66 50 53.4 52 62 61.8 62 51 54.6 52 71 70.1 72 52 55.0 51 75   74 55   56
09-27-23 68 63.0 65 43 40.7 46 69 65.6 68 48 53.4 51 66 61.8 65 50 54.6 53 73 70.1 72 52 55.0 52
09-26-23 64 61.5 62 40 40.6 45 67 63.0 65 43 40.7 46 68 65.6 66 49 53.4 52 67 61.8 65 51 54.6 48
09-25-23 67 62.3 64 48 44.8 51 65 61.5 62 43 40.6 43 66 63.0 64 44 40.7 44 68 65.6 66 47 53.4 49
09-24-23 60 57.5 61 52 53.0 55 69 62.3 69 46 44.8 49 65 61.5 64 42 40.6 44 67 63.0 66 44 40.7 46
09-23-23 62 55.4 65 51 50.0 52 63 57.5 57 51 53.0 50 70 62.3 71 47 44.8 51 65 61.5 65 44 40.6 45
09-22-23 71 67.9 69 48 46.9 51 62 55.4 67 52 50.0 52 63 57.5 68 52 53.0 52 65 62.3 70 48 44.8 51
09-21-23 68 68.1 68 44 43.3 48 71 67.9 70 48 46.9 51 65 55.4 65 50 50.0 52 68 57.5 66 50 53.0 54
09-20-23 65 67.0 67 42 43.7 46 68 68.1 70 45 43.3 50 70 67.9 70 49 46.9 52 66 55.4 64 51 50.0 50
09-19-23 62 62.6 63 45 49.1 47 66 67.0 68 41 43.7 46 68 68.1 70 46 43.3 50 72 67.9 71 49 46.9 52
09-18-23 66 66.8 67 53 55.9 53 64 62.6 64 47 49.1 48 68 67.0 68 45 43.7 46 70 68.1 70 47 43.3 49
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 9 12 12 8 7 10 10 7 7 8 9 7 5 7 8 3
% Succ 69.2   92.3 92.3   61.5 58.3   83.3 83.3   58.3 63.6   72.7 81.8   63.6 50.0   70.0 80.0   30.0
Ave Error 2.8   1.7 2.0   3.0 3.4   2.5 2.6   3.3 3.6   3.9 2.4   3.4 4.8   4.2 3.3   4.2
Net Error 1.2   1.7 -0.6   1.8 2.4   2.4 -0.8   1.2 3.6   3.9 0.0   1.9 4.8   4.2 0.1   1.4
Std Dev 2.2   2.4 1.2   1.7 2.0   3.2 1.3   1.3 2.4   3.4 1.3   1.4 1.3   1.9 1.0   1.1

1pm Mid Day Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 12Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 10-01-23 at 1:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-01-23 75   75 55   55 75   75 55   53 85   78 55   54 55   80 55   53
09-30-23 70 70.1 67 52 55.0 52 75   75 55   55 75   75 54   55 79   78 56   54
09-29-23 59 61.8 61 50 54.6 52 67 70.1 68 50 55.0 52 73   74 54   54 76   74 55   54
09-28-23 66 65.6 66 50 53.4 52 62 61.8 57 51 54.6 50 71 70.1 71 52 55.0 51 75   74 55   54
09-27-23 67 63.0 64 42 40.7 46 69 65.6 67 48 53.4 51 66 61.8 66 50 54.6 52 73 70.1 68 52 55.0 49
09-26-23 64 61.5 61 40 40.6 45 67 63.0 66 43 40.7 45 68 65.6 67 49 53.4 48 67 61.8 66 51 54.6 51
09-25-23 65 62.3 65 48 44.8 51 65 61.5 63 43 40.6 45 66 63.0 65 44 40.7 45 68 65.6 66 47 53.4 46
09-24-23 60 57.5 59 52 53.0 54 69 62.3 69 46 44.8 50 65 61.5 63 42 40.6 45 67 63.0 65 44 40.7 46
09-23-23 61 55.4 60 51 50.0 52 63 57.5 61 51 53.0 53 70 62.3 69 47 44.8 49 65 61.5 63 44 40.6 44
09-22-23 70 67.9 68 48 46.9 51 62 55.4 66 52 50.0 53 63 57.5 66 52 53.0 51 65 62.3 72 48 44.8 50
09-21-23 68 68.1 67 44 43.3 48 71 67.9 70 48 46.9 51 65 55.4 65 50 50.0 53 68 57.5 62 50 53.0 55
09-20-23 65 67.0 67 42 43.7 45 68 68.1 69 45 43.3 48 70 67.9 70 49 46.9 52 66 55.4 67 51 50.0 50
09-19-23 63 62.6 62 45 49.1 45 66 67.0 67 41 43.7 45 68 68.1 70 46 43.3 49 72 67.9 71 49 46.9 50
09-18-23 66 66.8 63 53 55.9 54 64 62.6 63 47 49.1 47 68 67.0 67 45 43.7 47 70 68.1 70 47 43.3 48
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 11 11 11 7 8 9 10 6 7 7 9 4 5 6 8 5
% Succ 84.6   84.6 84.6   53.8 66.7   75.0 83.3   50.0 63.6   63.6 81.8   36.4 50.0   60.0 80.0   50.0
Ave Error 2.0   1.6 2.2   3.2 3.2   3.1 2.6   3.3 3.6   3.5 2.4   4.0 4.8   4.1 3.3   4.1
Net Error 1.1   0.0 -1.1   1.2 2.5   1.9 -0.8   1.2 3.6   3.5 0.0   1.5 4.8   3.7 0.1   0.7
Std Dev 1.5   1.3 1.3   1.6 2.0   2.7 1.3   1.4 2.4   2.9 1.3   0.9 1.3   2.5 1.0   1.4

7pm Evening Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 18Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 09-30-23 at 7:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-30-23 50   54 76   75 54   55 76   75 55   56 79   78 58   55 81   80
09-29-23 51 54.6 53 71 70.1 68 51   50 74   75 53   52 76   74 55   53 79   78
09-28-23 51 53.4 53 60 61.8 58 51 54.6 52 71 70.1 70 51   50 75   73 56   53 74   74
09-27-23 42 40.7 44 67 65.6 67 47 53.4 52 66 61.8 61 49 54.6 54 72 70.1 72 51   51 75   75
09-26-23 40 40.6 44 66 63.0 66 41 40.7 46 67 65.6 67 47 53.4 49 66 61.8 68 50 54.6 52 72 70.1 73
09-25-23 48 44.8 50 63 61.5 62 41 40.6 44 64 63.0 64 43 40.7 45 67 65.6 65 49 53.4 50 67 61.8 63
09-24-23 55 53.0 54 65 62.3 67 45 44.8 49 65 61.5 63 40 40.6 44 65 63.0 65 45 40.7 45 65 65.6 66
09-23-23 50 50.0 52 61 57.5 61 49 53.0 52 70 62.3 68 45 44.8 49 65 61.5 62 42 40.6 45 66 63.0 64
09-22-23 46 46.9 50 63 55.4 67 51 50.0 52 63 57.5 64 52 53.0 50 69 62.3 71 49 44.8 52 66 61.5 64
09-21-23 44 43.3 48 70 67.9 70 48 46.9 52 61 55.4 65 50 50.0 52 63 57.5 63 52 53.0 52 65 62.3 70
09-20-23 35 43.7 45 70 68.1 69 45 43.3 47 75 67.9 70 45 46.9 51 65 55.4 68 55 50.0 51 65 57.5 69
09-19-23 44 49.1 45 67 67.0 67 43 43.7 45 70 68.1 70 46 43.3 49 73 67.9 70 49 46.9 52 67 55.4 58
09-18-23 54 55.9 63 64 62.6 54 45 49.1 63 68 67.0 47 44 43.7 67 70 68.1 47 47 43.3 70 72 67.9 48
09-17-23 54 66.8 56 69 55.4 65 53 55.9 54 65 62.6 63 46 49.1 48 68 67.0 67 45 43.7 47 71 68.1 70
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 10 8 11 8 9 7 7 8 9 5 6 6 4 5 5 7
% Succ 76.9   61.5 84.6   61.5 75.0   58.3 58.3   66.7 81.8   45.5 54.5   54.5 40.0   50.0 50.0   70.0
Ave Error 3.3   3.7 3.2   4.0 2.2   3.8 3.5   4.3 2.2   5.1 3.9   5.6 3.2   5.9 4.4   5.2
Net Error -2.2   1.1 2.9   1.8 -1.4   2.7 3.5   0.8 -1.2   3.4 3.9   1.6 1.2   4.5 4.3   1.2
Std Dev 2.4   1.9 1.9   3.2 1.8   1.6 2.2   2.9 2.0   1.9 2.3   3.5 1.2   2.2 1.6   2.7

Script credited to Jim at jcweather.us.
Dual Image forecast icons credited to Ken at Saratoga-Weather.org.