Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
133 FXUS61 KALY 182338 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 738 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and a few showers finally give way to some afternoon sun and warmer temperatures, especially south and west of Albany, as a warm front lifts through the area. A few additional scattered showers and thunderstorms can redevelop later today with any storm capable of heavy downpours. Dangerous heat and humidity returns for tomorrow ahead of a strong cold front which could result in strong to severe late afternoon thunderstorms with damaging winds the main hazard. Confidence remains moderate to high for dangerous heat to return early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message: - The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a slight risk (level 2 to 5) for severe weather tomorrow (mainly late afternoon into the early evening hours) as a potent cold front tracks eastward across the Northeast with damaging winds the primary hazard. - The combination of hot temperatures and uncomfortable humidity on Thursday will lead to heat index values or the "feel- like temperatures" climbing into the mid to upper 90s, especially in the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield County, CT, into the Capital Region. A Heat Advisory for these areas (except Litchfield County) will go into effect at 11am Thursday and continue through 8pm. Discussion: .Update...As of 6:50 PM EDT...Our region remains downstream of an upper trough, with a surface low well to the west, near the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Deep SW flow out ahead of these features has helped lift a warm front to the E/NE of our region per the latest WPC surface analysis and obs. Behind this front, we are seeing some convection across the eastern Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley, as well as across far northwestern Herkimer County. These areas have the most instability, at around 1000-1500 J/kg per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, but lack of vertical wind shear has kept these storms disorganized and below severe limits. The bigger threat is for locally heavy rain with these storms, as they are slow moving and PWATs are close to 2", especially across the Mid Hudson Valley. WPC does have most of our NY zones in a marginal risk ERO today, so some isolated hydro issues can`t be ruled out over the next couple hours. However, rainfall rates in our forecast area have generally remained under around 1" per hour based on latest NYS Mesonet obs, and the trend should be for diminishing coverage of convection with decreasing instability as we head towards sunset. The main change with this update was to reduce PoPs across the rest of the region where it is not raining. We also added mention of patchy fog into the forecast tonight, given high dew points and light winds. Greatest chance for fog will be in the typical valley areas and for areas that see rain this evening, especially if there are any breaks in the cloud cover tonight. All that said, previous forecast remains on track with more details in the previous discussion below... .Previous...Storms/showers diminish with the loss of daytime heating and we should trend drier tonight. With a muggy air mass, temperatures will not cool much only falling into the mid to upper 60s with cloudy skies returning. We remain concerned for both heat-related and severe weather related impacts for Thursday. An intensifying shortwave trough and deepening sfc low will advect an even warmer air mass into the Northeast with 850 hPa isotherms +17C to +20C. Early clouds quickly give way to morning sun and as southerly winds turn rather breezy supporting deep boundary layer mixing. The insolation and deep mixing should support temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s, topping out in the low 90s in the immediate valley areas in the afternoon. WPC`s HeatRisk continues to show much of our valley areas in its "moderate" or level 2 categories as well. Between the heat and humidity, we issued a Heat Advisory for the Hudson Valley from Albany to Poughkeepsie for tomorrow afternoon. An amplifying trough progressing out of the Great Lakes will track into Ontario tomorrow afternoon, resulting in height falls slowly spreading eastward into the Northeast. As the trough takes on a neutral tilt, the sfc low deepens in eastern Ontario and slows down. Overall timing for severe weather since yesterday has trended later as the best forcing is now delayed until after 18 UTC. With the main cold front now delayed until closer to 00 UTC, storms that can develop head of the front during the mid to later afternoon hours will likely favor storm clusters or semi-discrete storm mode as strong southwest winds aloft will result in rather strong deep layer shear values around 35-45kts. Given the the hot/humid air mass ahead of the front, the air mass will be primed for severe weather as sfc based instability exceed 1000J/kg and mid-level lapse steepen towards 5.5-6C/km. CAMs have trended less ambitious with very little if any storm development until after 18 UTC which is likely tied to weaker mid-level lapse rates and delayed arrival of the trough/height falls. It may take until mid to later afternoon for even discrete convection to initiate. By 21 - 00 UTC, the main cold front starts approaching from the west and straight line hodographs and shear vectors increasing to 40-45kts, plenty of SB CAPE and shear vectors oriented parallel to the forcing mechanism should support storm clusters somewhat organizing into more of a line immediately ahead of the main cold front. CAMs again are not overly enthused about a classic squall line developing but ML guidance still show a large swath of 15% damaging wind probabilities across the Northeast tomorrow afternoon. Therefore damaging winds is the primary hazard from any storms which matches with SPC`s thinking but heavy downpours are also possible given the high PWATs. Given the favorable set-up and strong forcing for ascent, SPC maintains a slight risk (level 2 to 5) its Day 2 Convective Outlook over much of eastern NY and western New England for Thursday. WPC has also blanketed much of the Northeast in its "marginal risk" (level 1 of 4) for potential localized flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... The trough axis/sfc cold front should finally push through the region by Thursday evening with the trough taking on a negative tilt allowing the sfc low to deepen towards ~995hPa. The front is rather fast moving so the severe threat should end before Midnight. Once the true cold front/trough axis sweep through by the pre-dawn hours, winds quickly shift to the northwest and even turn a bit breezy given the strong dynamics and subsidence in its wake. Northwest winds advect a cooler and less humid air into the region which will allow overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 50s with low 60s in valley areas. Friday turns quite breezy given strong subsidence in the wake of the deepening low with northwest winds strengthening to 10-18mph with gusts up to 30mph in the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and western MA. Probabilistic guidance even shows 25-40% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30mph. Otherwise, Friday will be much more comfortable with lower humidity and seasonable temperatures in the 70s to around 80 under plenty of sun. High pressure builds overhead for Saturday giving us a pleasant start to the weekend with much lower winds. As large scale ridging from the Central CONUS builds into the Northeast, the conveyor belt of strong westerly winds along its northern periphery tracks overhead Sat afternoon resulting in partly sunny skies. Temperatures also trend warmer and humidity levels rise higher with highs back into the mid to upper 80s making it uncomfortable once again. Luckily, not expect us to reach heat advisory criteria. We continue to monitor the Saturday night into early Sunday time frame for a potential "ridge roller" as guidance continues to show a rather potent shortwaves riding within the fast westerly flow aloft which could support additional areas of showers/thunderstorms or even an MCS (depending on the track). ML guidance has painted a 15% damaging wind contour across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with 5% extending downwind into the Northeast. Where any MCS or storm clusters develop will also depend on the overall track of the shortwaves and the northern extent of the upper level ridging. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: - High confidence for a period of dangerous heat and humidity early to mid next week. There is greater than 75% confidence for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees Monday and Tuesday with even 45-50% confidence for high temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees in valley areas. Heat index values likely approach and even exceed 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Discussion: We remain focused on a prolonged period of hot and humid weather Sunday through Tuesday as the large anti-cyclone (595 to 600dm 500hPa heights) from the Midwest/Ohio Valley builds eastward with the hot air dome at its core extending into the Northeast. Guidance remain in strong agreement for 700 and 850 hPa isotherms reaching 3.5 - 3 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS. Such high temperatures in the afternoon reaching into the mid to even upper 90s combined with higher humidity values will likely result in dangerous heat index values or "feel- like" temperatures closer to 100 - 105 degrees. WPC HeatRisk graphics show widespread "major" heat- related impacts for Monday and Tuesday. Sensitive populations including the very young, elderly, and those with pre-existing conditions should limit time outdoors and avoid any strenuous outdoor activities. Stay hydrated (even if you are not thirsty) and stay in air- conditioning, if available. Overnight temperatures will not provide relief as overnight lows only fall into the 70s in valley areas (60s higher terrain) with high humidity continuing. Visit weather.gov/heat for more preparedness information. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Scattered showers through 02Z/Thu could bring some brief MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs to KPSF, KPOU and KALB. More widespread low MVFR to IFR Cigs and Vsbys are expected to develop between 04Z-08Z/Thu with low clouds/areas of fog, and should persist until 12Z/Thu-14Z/Thu at all the TAF sites overnight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid Thursday morning, with mainly VFR conditions then expected outside any scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Best chance of thunderstorms ahead of an incoming cold front looks to be 17Z-22Z/Thu at KALB/KGFL, and 20Z-24Z/Thu at KPSF/KPOU. South to southeast winds less than 6 KT overnight will become south to southwest and increase to 10-15 KT by Thursday afternoon with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near thunderstorms. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ052-053- 059-060-064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...KL