Scan Me With Your Phone's Bar Code Reader App
Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 082347 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 647 PM EST Wed Dec 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop off the east coast this evening, however the storm will be too far east to bring anything more than a little light snow or flurries to our area this evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry, seasonable weather on Thursday, then a warm front could bring a bit of light snow mainly north of the Capital District Thursday night. Warmer weather will arrive on Friday, then very mild weather is expected on Saturday, along with a good chance of rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... Surrounding radars show light snow has overspread entire area. Updated POPs and WX to account for movement of the upper level trough and associated snow. Steady snow should end this evening with maybe some lingering snow showers over eastern areas and lake effect showers developing over western areas. Temperatures have remained or fallen below freezing everywhere except right along the Hudson River in Mid Hudson Valley. Expect some slick spots out there on untreated roads and sidewalks. Winds are from a northerly direction and light and so no blowing snow expected tonight. PREVIOUS... A short wave trough moving east from the Great Lakes will spread some light snow showers east from central NY toward our area late this afternoon. The trough will also energize an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast, and will induce an inverted surface trough extending northwest from the surface low toward eastern NY. This low-level feature will likely enhance the snow shower activity for a while this evening, especially over the higher terrain of western New England late this evening where some light upslope northwesterly flow will develop before the trough moves east during the early morning hours. Meanwhile, some lake effect snow showers will develop west of the Hudson Valley overnight as 850 mb temperatures fall below -10 C with a northwest flow. This combination of features will bring a light coating of snow to much of the area tonight, with perhaps up to an inch or two of snow over higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak ridge of high pressure will build east across the area on Thursday, cutting off any light lake effect snow early in the morning and allowing for some sunshine with light winds and near seasonable temperatures. An approaching warm front will spread clouds across the area late Thursday and Thursday night. A period of light snow may accompany the passage of the warm front late Thursday night, mainly north and west of the Capital District. Once again, snow amounts will be very light. A warming trend will begin on Friday with the passage of the warm front. The flow will turn into the south-southwest allowing temperatures to climb into the 40s in the Hudson Valley and upper 30s over the higher terrain. Low pressure tracking northeast across the western and central Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday will bring increasing chances for precipitation to our area Friday night into Saturday night. At this point, the most likely scenario looks to be one round of light rain, possibly mixed with sleet or freezing rain, for areas mainly north and west of the Capital District Friday night. Saturday will be quite warm and breezy with many areas climbing into the 50s and even some lower 60s possible in the Hudson Valley. A few showers will probably occur, but the day does not look like a washout. A line of showers will cross the area later Saturday ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. A band of heavy rain and or strong winds could accompany the passage of the front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Our impressive cold front will be crossing the region Saturday night resulting in a sharp temperature drop with even a cold frontal rain band. Then, gusty winds ensue Saturday night as a strengthening high from the mid-Atlantic builds northward and takes control of the Northeast. High pressure remains overhead through at least Tuesday which will keep seasonably temperatures and persistent dry conditions in place. Read on for details. We start off the period Saturday night with our impressive cold front pushing eastward through the region. Guidance suggests showalters drop near or even slightly below 0 immediately ahead of the front which when combined with dew points rising near 50F raises concerns for some rumbles of thunder. At this time, we chose not to include thunder mention but will continue to monitor trends and SPC Convective Outlooks as the event draws closer. Regardless of thunder, the upstream parent trough swinging through Ontario looks to become negatively tilted which will enhance the low level convergence along the incoming cold front and sharpen the temperatures gradient across the boundary. Therefore, confidence is increasing that a cold frontal rain band will develop immediately ahead of the front which could result in a sharp increase in wind gusts, period of moderate to heavy rain and drop in temperatures. In fact, BUFKIT profiles show that the incoming cold air mass behind the front could allow wind gusts to top 40 - 50kts as the sfc winds shift sharply to the west-northwest. We also note a sharp pressure rise +10 - 13hPa behind the front as well so the isallobaric wind contributions could result in wind advisory level winds Saturday night and will need to be monitored. The front is very progressive luckily and should exit east of western New England after 06 UTC. Strong cold air advection behind the front and westerly flow over Lake Ontario will result in lake effect snow with snow extending into the western Adirondacks. Therefore, we show chance and likely POPs reaching into the chimney of Herkimer County and into northern Hamilton County 00 - 06 UTC Sunday. However, high pressure building northward from the mid- Atlantic will likely lower inversion heights and therefore shut off the lake effect snow by Sunday morning. Otherwise, temperatures Saturday night will turn chillier in comparison to the mild daytime Saturday temperatures many will enjoy with lows back in upper 20s to low 30s. Breezy winds subside during the day Sunday as the pressure gradient overhead weakens with high pressure strengthening to 1030hPa as it moves into the mid-Atlantic. We remain on the northern fringe of the high which will maintain westerly flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will still remain slightly above normal with highs reaching into the upper 30s to mid 40s under partly sunny skies. Dry and seasonable conditions remain in place Monday through at least Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead and builds impressively towards ~1040hPa. With flow aloft mainly from the west, temperatures will likely stay a bit above normal through at least the first half of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00z Friday...As of 6:45 PM EST, snow has overspread all of the TAF sites except POU, and snow is expected to begin at POU momentarily. A steady light snow will fall across the region until 4-5z. This will lead to IFR visibilities over the next 4-5 hours. Ceilings will be mainly MVFR, but some pockets of IFR ceilings are possible as well. New snow accumulation looks to be around an inch or less at POU, GFL, and ALB, with up to 2" PSF. Snow will taper to showers after 4-5z, with lingering MVFR ceilings expected for a couple hours. However, after 6-7z, expecting improvement in ceilings and visibilities to VFR, with VFR conditions continuing through the end of the TAF period. The exception is PSF where westerly moist upslope flow will keep MVFR ceilings around through most of the night and into tomorrow morning. However, by 13-14z tomorrow, expecting improvement to VFR at PSF too. Winds are currently at less than 5 kts out of the northeast. Light north/northeasterly winds should continue until around 4-5z. However, after the snow ends, winds will shift to the west at 5-10 kts. Winds remain from the west/northwest at 5-10 kts through most of the day tomorrow, but will become light and variable after sunset. Outlook... Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Hydrologically significant precipitation is not expected through Friday. Cooler weather through Thursday night will allow ice to form in some waterways at higher elevations. The next chance of widespread precipitation looks to be from late Friday night through Saturday, as a warm front then a cold front move across the region. Available moisture will be well above normal for this time of year, however the system is expected to move through quickly which should preclude any flooding issues. Some river rises are likely to occur as most of the precipitation is expected to be rain, with greater than an inch possible. Drier weather returns Sunday into early next week, which would allow river levels to gradually recede. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... The KENX radar will remain down through at least tonight to refurbish and replace the pedestal. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...SND/MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...Thompson/Speciale AVIATION...Main HYDROLOGY...JPV EQUIPMENT...