Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 260535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through
Thursday with high pressure in control. The weather then turns
unsettled with showers and thunderstorms developing on Friday as
a front and low pressure system approach from the west. Showers
and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday, with improving
conditions expected for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid and high level clouds spilling into eastern NY and western
New England overtop the large scale ridge in place over the
Eastern CONUS. Despite ceilings being rather high, somewhat
breezy surface winds out of the south have kept temperatures
elevated tonight with most still in the mid 50s to low 60s.
While regional radar mosaic is picking up on showers in the
North Country, ASOS and NYS mesonet sites are not recording any
precip and these showers are likely virga. This is likely due
to low and mid level dry air which shows up on the BUF and
especially the OKX 00 UTC/26 soundings. Oddly, guidance shows
the dry air advecting inland from the Atlantic along the
southern periphery of the off shore high. This dry air will
contribute to lowering dew points overnight as well, especially
in western New England. The persistent mid and high level clouds
overnight should keep temperatures a bit mild with morning lows
only in the mid to upper 50s except for portions of NW CT, the
Berkshires and southern VT where less cloud coverage and
lowering dew points should allow for cooler lows in the upper
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For Thursday, aforementioned area of relatively dry low levels
will continue translating northward across the region during the
morning, before shifting into southern VT and eventually
northeast of the region during the afternoon hours. Early
morning mid level clouds across northern areas should thin
by mid to late morning, so expect at least partly sunny skies
in the morning through early afternoon in many areas. However,
will have to watch stratus clouds building across PA and central
NYS, which may begin expanding north and east into the eastern
Catskills and Mohawk Valley during the afternoon. It will become
breezy, with somewhat steep low level lapse rates and also a low
level jet segment brushing the region. South winds may gust up
to 25-30 mph by late morning through the afternoon within
north/south oriented valleys, and also some higher terrain
areas. Max temps should reach the lower/mid 70s in valleys and
65-70 across higher elevations.

There could be another band of mid level clouds passing through
northwest areas toward sunset through Thursday evening. Can not
rule out a few sprinkles from these clouds across portions of
the SW Adirondacks. Otherwise, low clouds are expected to
gradually develop through the overnight hours, initially across
southern areas and also upslope higher terrain areas of the
eastern Catskills and SW Adirondacks, before expanding into
valley areas prior to daybreak Friday. There could be some
patchy drizzle developing by daybreak as well across portions of
the eastern Catskills, Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. Lows
generally in the 50s to lower 60s.

Friday should feature mostly cloudy skies, with increasing
chances for showers and some thunderstorms from west to east,
particularly during the late afternoon hours. There remains some
uncertainty regarding the eastward extent of
showers/thunderstorms, with some guidance suggesting this to
remain slower, with areas mainly across the SW Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley having the best chances for showers/thunderstorms
by late afternoon, while coverage of any showers potentially
remains more limited farther east.

Will also have to watch for some isolated stronger thunderstorms
Friday afternoon, as mid level wind fields remain somewhat
moderate, with 0-6 km deep layer shear of 30-35 KT. Instability
parameters are not overly impressive, with MU CAPES generally
remaining below 1000 J/kg, assuming widespread cloud coverage
through the day. Should any breaks in the clouds develop,
instability would be greater, enhancing any isolated severe
potential. SPC currently places much of the region within a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, with isolated damaging
wind gusts being the main threat. Current forecast parameters
would suggest the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley would have
the best potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. In
addition, WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal
Risk for flash flooding, as PWAT`s increase to around 1.50", and
some training of thunderstorm clusters is possible. Highs Friday
mainly 75-80 in valleys and 70-75 for higher terrain, however
dewpoints should climb into the lower/mid 60s, so it will feel
somewhat more humid.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue into Friday night as a
slow moving cold front moves into the region from the west.
Locally heavy downpours will remain possible as the front tracks
through. It should remain warm and muggy, with low temps in the
lower/mid 60s for most valley areas, and 55-60 across higher
terrain areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Two main weather headlines during the long-term period will be 1)
the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms on Saturday
and 2) the increasing prospects of very warm to hot and humid
conditions during the early to middle parts of next week.

Additional Showers And Thunderstorms Possible Saturday:

We start off the extended on Saturday where synoptically an H500
closed low will be situated to our south/southwest (over
Appalachia/Mid-Atlantic), a double-barreled occluding low will also
be situated to our southwest (over the Ohio Valley into the Mid-
Atlantic), and another surface low pressure area to our northeast
over southeastern Quebec/Maine. An associated cold front connecting
these surface low pressure systems will be approaching from the
west. At this time stamp, there`s still some uncertainty in where
exactly the cold front will be located, but it will be somewhere in
the vicinity of our cwa. Positive vorticity advection (PVA) near the
right entrance region of a 250 mb jet, the aforementioned cold
frontal boundary coupled with some surface based heating could aid
in the development of showers and thunderstorms over the area on
Saturday. Thunderstorms will be conditional on how much surface
heating and lift we get. SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg
and MLCAPE values up to 500 J/kg would support thunder too with the
greatest confidence being southeast of Albany. The cold fropa should
take place Saturday evening with precipitation winding down or
shifting east of our area.

Very Warm To Hot And Humid Weather Conditions Monday-Wednesday:

Beyond Saturday, global forecast models and ensembles (GEFS/ECE/CMC)
continue to advertise a summertime-like pattern emerging over the
eastern half of the country. This summertime-like pattern will
feature a strong mid-upper ridge developing over the Southeastern
CONUS between Memorial Day and Wednesday of next week. During this
time period (Monday-Wednesday), a 591dm H500 core is progged to be
established over the Southeast U.S. This will support the return of
very warm to hot and humid conditions over eastern New York and
western new England. Given the magnitude of this ridge, 850 mb temps
between 13-16C on Monday, and 15-20C Tuesday and Wednesday will
translate to surface temperatures in the mid 80s on Monday and upper
80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Dewpoints will
be in the upper 50s to near 60F on Monday, and low to mid 60s
Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong capping and location of the
jetstream/baroclinic zone will keep dry weather in place Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this afternoon with ceilings well
above 3000 feet. Low level moisture is expected to increase toward
evening, which would support development of lower clouds, in the
1500-2000 foot level. Indicating scattered clouds between 1500-2000
feet until the development and movement of low clouds can be tracked
and confidence in MVFR ceilings would increase. The best chance for
an MVFR ceiling is at KPOU and indicating MVFR ceiling after 00Z
there.

South to southeast winds through daybreak at around 10 Kt or less,
becoming south at 10 to 15 Kt through morning, and gusts around 20
Kt this afternoon. South winds diminish to around 10 Kt or less this
evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible late Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon...

Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through
Thursday with high pressure in control. The weather then turns
unsettled with showers and thunderstorms developing on Friday as a
front and low pressure system approach from the west. Showers and
thunderstorms may linger into Saturday, with improving conditions
expected for Sunday into Monday.

RH values will recover to 60 to 80 percent tonight, then fall to
35 to 50 late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon.

Winds will be south to southeast and increase slightly to 5-15 mph
tonight, and increase to 10 to 20 mph by Thursday afternoon, with
some gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to
east Friday afternoon into Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Generally dry weather is expected through Thursday night.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from west to
east Friday afternoon into Friday night. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible, which could lead to isolated
urban/poor drainage flooding, especially in any areas which
receive multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Some within
bank river rises will also be likely.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion