Scan Me With Your Phone's Bar Code Reader App
Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 310853 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 353 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Slightly below normal temperatures are expected today into Wednesday, with mostly dry weather except for lake effect snow showers for the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. An arctic cold front arrives toward Thursday night with another round of snow showers, followed by a bitterly cold air mass for Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 350 AM EST, area of light snow continues across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT extending northeast into the Berkshires and southern VT. There are some bands of moderate snow noted on regional radars upstream across NE PA and the southern Catskills and tracking east northeast, so a few periods of moderate snow could occur across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT over the next 1-3 hours, producing localized accumulations of 1-2 inches. Elsewhere, areal extent of snow continues to decrease, with patchy light snow and flurries, especially across Herkimer County. Some of this is lake enhanced, and may form into a band across southern Herkimer County over the next 1-2 hours, allowing for additional accumulations of up to an inch. The snow across southern areas should taper off between 6 and 8 AM, while a lake effect snowband may impact portions of SW Herkimer, portions of Schoharie County extending into central/southern Albany County through mid morning before weakening and contracting farther west. Scattered additional accumulations of a coating to less than an inch could occur during this time. Some breaks of sun may develop later this morning into the afternoon, although there will still be intervals of clouds mixed in. Winds may become a bit gusty this morning within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires this morning, with some gusts possibly up to 20-25 mph. Winds may tend to decrease this afternoon. Temperatures should only rise slightly from morning temps for most areas, mainly in the mid 20s to lower 30s, except mainly teens across the southern Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A weak mid level disturbance will track eastward overnight, mainly producing a period of mostly cloudy skies. There could be a bit of patchy light snow or flurries late this evening close to I-84 corridor, although increasingly dry low level air may inhibit much snow from reaching the ground. Clearing is expected toward daybreak from NW to SE, which should allow temps to drop off rapidly before sunrise, especially across the southern Adirondacks and Lake George/Saratoga region, where some min temps may reach the single digits above and slightly below zero. A mix of sun and clouds for Wednesday, with better chances for sustained sunshine south of I-90. A lake effect snowband is expected to develop off Ontario by Wednesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday night, which will impact mainly northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible, especially north and west of Old Forge. Highs Wednesday in the teens and 20s, except lower/mid 30s within portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Lows Wed night in the single digits and teens. Low level ridging builds in for Thursday, as upper level trough digs into Ontario/Quebec. This should allow for some sunshine before clouds increase later in the day, along with slightly milder temps reaching the mid 30s to around 40 for valley areas, and 20s across higher terrain. Arctic cold front approaches late Thursday night preceded and accompanied by snow showers, especially across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. There could be a few embedded snow squalls along the actual front, although snow squall parameters are mainly focused across the SW Adirondacks before weakening farther south and east. Low temps will likely occur in the wake of the front Friday morning, after sunrise, with temps falling into the single digits and teens, except zero to 10 below across the SW Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills Friday into Saturday... A bitterly cold/frigid Arctic air mass will pour into the region on Friday with gusty northwest winds. This will be a major, but short- lived cold outbreak with dangerously low wind chills. Scattered lake effect snow showers will be possible west of the Hudson Valley on Friday, but extremely dry air will preclude any organized activity in our area. A deep upper level trough will settle in across SE Canada and the Northeast, with the coldest air mass we have seen in several years(mid Feb 2016). To give some perspective, 850 mb temperatures are close to the minimum seen in the 30-year model climate database across our region late Friday into early Saturday. This equates to temperature anomalies at 850/925 mb of -2 to -4 STDEV. Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Friday with strong cold advection, bottoming out between -5F and -25F Friday night into early Saturday morning. With persistent northwest winds around 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph combined with the frigid temperatures, wind chill values will drop to -25F to -50F. These values will likely prompt the issuance of Wind Chill Warnings for the entire area late Friday into Saturday. Will continue to mention this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The frigid air mass will persist through Saturday, with highs only ranging from around zero north to the mid 10s south. Northwest winds will remain breezy, but not as strong/gusty as Friday. Low temperatures Saturday night will likely occur early, with warm advection commencing overnight as S-SW flow aloft increases substantially. The air mass will modify substantially on Sunday with zonal flow aloft returning. Highs Sunday afternoon should get back to slightly above normal levels(upper 20s to upper 30s). Will mention low chance PoPs for a few snow showers in the warm advection regime on Sunday. Mild conditions persist into Monday with continued zonal flow aloft. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few lingering patches of light snow will move across the KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF sites prior to 12Z. Mainly MVFR conditions will likely prevail, with some occasional IFR expected associated with the -SN. Conditions should gradually improve this morning as high pressure builds into northern NY and New England. MVFR cigs should give way to VFR as skies transition from OVC to BKN this morning mainly between 13Z-16Z. Lower level clouds should become at least SCT by this evening, with mid level clouds already increasing associated with a weak disturbance approaching from the west. VFR conditions should still prevail this evening through 06Z Wednesday. Winds will be north-northwest around 5-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt developing at KALB/KPSF after 12Z today. Winds will decrease to around 5 kt or less this evening. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record lowest high temperature for February 3rd (Friday) Albany, NY: 6 degrees set in 1955 Poughkeepsie, NY: 13 degrees set in 1955 Glens Falls, NY: 3 degrees set in 1955 Record lowest temperature for February 4th (Saturday) Albany, NY: -13 degrees set in 1978 Poughkeepsie, NY: -10 degrees set in 1985 Glens Falls, NY: -22 degrees set in 1978 Record lowest high temperature for February 4th (Saturday) Albany, NY: 3 degrees set in 1886 Poughkeepsie, NY: 14 degrees in 1948 Glens Falls, NY: 4 degrees in 1908 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Rathbun NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV CLIMATE...CS