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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 260535 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 135 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through Thursday with high pressure in control. The weather then turns unsettled with showers and thunderstorms developing on Friday as a front and low pressure system approach from the west. Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday, with improving conditions expected for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Mid and high level clouds spilling into eastern NY and western New England overtop the large scale ridge in place over the Eastern CONUS. Despite ceilings being rather high, somewhat breezy surface winds out of the south have kept temperatures elevated tonight with most still in the mid 50s to low 60s. While regional radar mosaic is picking up on showers in the North Country, ASOS and NYS mesonet sites are not recording any precip and these showers are likely virga. This is likely due to low and mid level dry air which shows up on the BUF and especially the OKX 00 UTC/26 soundings. Oddly, guidance shows the dry air advecting inland from the Atlantic along the southern periphery of the off shore high. This dry air will contribute to lowering dew points overnight as well, especially in western New England. The persistent mid and high level clouds overnight should keep temperatures a bit mild with morning lows only in the mid to upper 50s except for portions of NW CT, the Berkshires and southern VT where less cloud coverage and lowering dew points should allow for cooler lows in the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... For Thursday, aforementioned area of relatively dry low levels will continue translating northward across the region during the morning, before shifting into southern VT and eventually northeast of the region during the afternoon hours. Early morning mid level clouds across northern areas should thin by mid to late morning, so expect at least partly sunny skies in the morning through early afternoon in many areas. However, will have to watch stratus clouds building across PA and central NYS, which may begin expanding north and east into the eastern Catskills and Mohawk Valley during the afternoon. It will become breezy, with somewhat steep low level lapse rates and also a low level jet segment brushing the region. South winds may gust up to 25-30 mph by late morning through the afternoon within north/south oriented valleys, and also some higher terrain areas. Max temps should reach the lower/mid 70s in valleys and 65-70 across higher elevations. There could be another band of mid level clouds passing through northwest areas toward sunset through Thursday evening. Can not rule out a few sprinkles from these clouds across portions of the SW Adirondacks. Otherwise, low clouds are expected to gradually develop through the overnight hours, initially across southern areas and also upslope higher terrain areas of the eastern Catskills and SW Adirondacks, before expanding into valley areas prior to daybreak Friday. There could be some patchy drizzle developing by daybreak as well across portions of the eastern Catskills, Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. Lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s. Friday should feature mostly cloudy skies, with increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms from west to east, particularly during the late afternoon hours. There remains some uncertainty regarding the eastward extent of showers/thunderstorms, with some guidance suggesting this to remain slower, with areas mainly across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley having the best chances for showers/thunderstorms by late afternoon, while coverage of any showers potentially remains more limited farther east. Will also have to watch for some isolated stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon, as mid level wind fields remain somewhat moderate, with 0-6 km deep layer shear of 30-35 KT. Instability parameters are not overly impressive, with MU CAPES generally remaining below 1000 J/kg, assuming widespread cloud coverage through the day. Should any breaks in the clouds develop, instability would be greater, enhancing any isolated severe potential. SPC currently places much of the region within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, with isolated damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Current forecast parameters would suggest the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley would have the best potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. In addition, WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for flash flooding, as PWAT`s increase to around 1.50", and some training of thunderstorm clusters is possible. Highs Friday mainly 75-80 in valleys and 70-75 for higher terrain, however dewpoints should climb into the lower/mid 60s, so it will feel somewhat more humid. Showers and thunderstorms should continue into Friday night as a slow moving cold front moves into the region from the west. Locally heavy downpours will remain possible as the front tracks through. It should remain warm and muggy, with low temps in the lower/mid 60s for most valley areas, and 55-60 across higher terrain areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Two main weather headlines during the long-term period will be 1) the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and 2) the increasing prospects of very warm to hot and humid conditions during the early to middle parts of next week. Additional Showers And Thunderstorms Possible Saturday: We start off the extended on Saturday where synoptically an H500 closed low will be situated to our south/southwest (over Appalachia/Mid-Atlantic), a double-barreled occluding low will also be situated to our southwest (over the Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic), and another surface low pressure area to our northeast over southeastern Quebec/Maine. An associated cold front connecting these surface low pressure systems will be approaching from the west. At this time stamp, there`s still some uncertainty in where exactly the cold front will be located, but it will be somewhere in the vicinity of our cwa. Positive vorticity advection (PVA) near the right entrance region of a 250 mb jet, the aforementioned cold frontal boundary coupled with some surface based heating could aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms over the area on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be conditional on how much surface heating and lift we get. SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg and MLCAPE values up to 500 J/kg would support thunder too with the greatest confidence being southeast of Albany. The cold fropa should take place Saturday evening with precipitation winding down or shifting east of our area. Very Warm To Hot And Humid Weather Conditions Monday-Wednesday: Beyond Saturday, global forecast models and ensembles (GEFS/ECE/CMC) continue to advertise a summertime-like pattern emerging over the eastern half of the country. This summertime-like pattern will feature a strong mid-upper ridge developing over the Southeastern CONUS between Memorial Day and Wednesday of next week. During this time period (Monday-Wednesday), a 591dm H500 core is progged to be established over the Southeast U.S. This will support the return of very warm to hot and humid conditions over eastern New York and western new England. Given the magnitude of this ridge, 850 mb temps between 13-16C on Monday, and 15-20C Tuesday and Wednesday will translate to surface temperatures in the mid 80s on Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to near 60F on Monday, and low to mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong capping and location of the jetstream/baroclinic zone will keep dry weather in place Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected through this afternoon with ceilings well above 3000 feet. Low level moisture is expected to increase toward evening, which would support development of lower clouds, in the 1500-2000 foot level. Indicating scattered clouds between 1500-2000 feet until the development and movement of low clouds can be tracked and confidence in MVFR ceilings would increase. The best chance for an MVFR ceiling is at KPOU and indicating MVFR ceiling after 00Z there. South to southeast winds through daybreak at around 10 Kt or less, becoming south at 10 to 15 Kt through morning, and gusts around 20 Kt this afternoon. South winds diminish to around 10 Kt or less this evening. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon... Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through Thursday with high pressure in control. The weather then turns unsettled with showers and thunderstorms developing on Friday as a front and low pressure system approach from the west. Showers and thunderstorms may linger into Saturday, with improving conditions expected for Sunday into Monday. RH values will recover to 60 to 80 percent tonight, then fall to 35 to 50 late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Winds will be south to southeast and increase slightly to 5-15 mph tonight, and increase to 10 to 20 mph by Thursday afternoon, with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to east Friday afternoon into Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Generally dry weather is expected through Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from west to east Friday afternoon into Friday night. Locally heavy downpours will be possible, which could lead to isolated urban/poor drainage flooding, especially in any areas which receive multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Some within bank river rises will also be likely. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...KL/NAS HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS