Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 281928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
328 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will bring a slightly cooler but still
dry air mass to the region early this week before warmer air
returns for mid to late week. Another cold front will approach
the region later in the week into next weekend and may bring our
next best chance for some much needed rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Our Rex Block pattern will be in a weakening state through
tonight as an upper-level disturbance dives southeastward
across Quebec toward Atlantic Canada and a surface cold front
approaches from the north. This front is pushing southward and
can be seen on visible satellite imagery as a small arc line of
clouds stretching from southern Quebec into northern Maine. High
pressure will build southward from Quebec behind the front. The
front will begin to push through the area tonight, though
moisture will be drying up as it does so. As a result, there may
be very few clouds accompanying the front as it arrives.
Therefore, we expect a clear/mostly clear night with light winds
and another fairly ideal radiational cooling night given the
still rather dry air mass in place and light to calm winds. We
continued the trend from previous nights of adjusting low
temperatures closer to the lower end of guidance. Lows in the
mid-40s to mid-50s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A backdoor cold front will continue its full southward
progression across the area on Monday as high pressure builds
southeastward across New England. This will bring a slightly
cooler and more marine air mass into the region through Tuesday.
Low-level flow will turn east/southeasterly on Monday and then
south/southeasterly on Tuesday. 850 hPa temperatures will also
fall back to the +10 to +12C range. This will equate to high
temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s both days. The cooler and
more marine air mass should support at least some fair weather
cumulus clouds during the daylight hours but still expect skies
to remain mostly sunny/clear. Latest hi-res guidance suggests
there is the potential for some very isolated upslope shower
activity on Monday (within closer proximity to the front) for
areas west of the Hudson River (i.e. eastern Catskills, western
Mohawk Valley and the southern Adirondacks) but the continued
dry air mass should prevent or limit coverage, so will maintain
a dry forecast due to low confidence.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The Rex Block will  by midweek as the upper-level low slowly
lifts northward toward the mid-Atlantic region. There remains
question how far north that system will get and whether any
precipitation on its northern edge reaches southern areas.
Overall consensus suggests we remain dry, though we can at least
expect an increase in some high clouds on Wednesday, especially
across southern areas. 850 hPa temperatures rise to +12 to +14C
so Wednesday will turn a bit warmer with highs reaching the
upper 70s to mid-80s.

The Rex Block will begin to break up later in the week as the
upper-level low to the south slowly shears out. Another upper-
level feature will dive southeastward across Quebec into
Atlantic Canada Friday into Saturday (though actual timing is
uncertain) and will drag a cold front southward across our
region. There will be greater moisture with this system
(Precipitable water values between 1.00 and 1.50 inches in some
places) so some showers and possible thunderstorms could
accompany the front. Prior to the arrival of the front, it will
be quite warm with highs both Thursday and Friday well into the
80s for most with a few 90 degree readings possible. Cooler and
drier air returns behind the front to end the weekend. Beyond
next weekend, a below normal temperature pattern is favored
based on the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
along with near normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period at all terminals. Clear skies will
persist across the region ahead of a back-door cold front
crossing the forecast area from north to south tonight. With the
arrival of the dry front, cloud cover will increase at 4-6 kft
from 06-12Z Monday as the boundary sags southward, but cigs will
remain unlimited. No vsby restrictions are anticipated through
the period.

Winds are currently light at 4-8 kts out of the south to west,
and will steadily veer through west to north over the next 6-12
hrs. While speeds diminish to 5 kt or less after 00-03Z Monday,
the wind direction will shift behind the frontal boundary to
the north and northeast. Northeast to east winds persist at 5-10
kt behind the boundary and through the remainder of the period.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly clear, slightly cooler and dry weather is expected early
this week, then warmer air returns for the middle to later part
of the week. Next chance for some rainfall is not until later
in the week. RH values recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight then
lower to 30 to 40 percent on Monday. Light and variable wind
tonight becomes east to southeasterly Monday at 7 to 15 mph.
Similar RH values are expected on Tuesday with wind a bit more
southerly at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Picard
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion