Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

524
FXUS61 KALY 112334
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
634 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect and upslope snow showers continue through this
evening bringing slippery travel conditions to the evening
commute across the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.

2) Tranquil weather conditions continue through the weekend
outside of low chances for light snow showers Friday night.

3) Low chances for widespread light snow or rain Sunday night
into Monday as a coastal low pressure system continues to be
supported to develop off the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Winter weather advisories across the southern Adirondacks and
southern Greens continue through tonight as light snow showers
continue. Lake effect snow showers off of Lake Ontario continues
this evening as upper level flow continues to support light
snow showers across eastern New York. By late tonight, tranquil
weather conditions return as the upper level flow shifts and
light snow flurries could occur through tomorrow morning for
Herkimer and Hamilton counties. Light snow re-develops across
the southern Greens this afternoon continuing into tonight.
Additional light snowfall accumulations between 1 to 3 inches
are in the forecast for these locations. Otherwise, light snow
showers continue this afternoon across eastern New York bringing
a light coating/trace of snow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A tranquil weather pattern is in store through Friday night. A
weak upper level trough could move southward from the north
Friday night bringing low chances for light snow showers, but
otherwise dry conditions prevail through Sunday. Temperatures
continue to be near normal through Saturday when a front moves
through bringing below normal temperatures for Sunday into early
next week. Lows could be back into the single digits to low
teens for Sunday morning with highs Sunday in the 20s and low
30s. These colder temperatures, especially above the surface,
could help contribute to our next low chances at precipitation
for Sunday night into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The latest forecast continues to support low chances for
widespread snow or rain/snow mix in valley locations Sunday
night into Monday. Ensemble model guidances are in strong
agreement for a coastal low pressure system to develop, but are
in disagreement with the current track of the low. There are two
primary scenarios that could happen Sunday night into Monday:

Scenario Number 1: The coastal low stays out to sea and we see
mostly cloudy skies with widespread dry and breezy conditions.
This scenario is not favored by latest forecast model trends.

Scenario Number 2: The coastal low stays closer to along the
coast for low chances of widespread light snow then light
rain/snow mix in valley locations as temperatures climb above
freezing. This scenario is currently supported by the latest
forecast for widespread 15 to 30 percent chances of
precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning.

Exact timing, amounts, and track will continue to evolve as we
get closer in time to Sunday with more details on the coastal
low. Nevertheless, continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z/Fri...Moist, cyclonic flow behind a departing low
pressure system will continue to bring clouds and some lake
effect snow showers to the region through tonight. The best snow
shower chances will be at KALB/KPSF between 00-02z/Thu where
IFR vsbys with MVFR cigs can occur. Additional upslope light
snow showers could redevelop at KPSF between 06-12z/Thu tonight
as well and a PROB30 was maintained for this. Outside of any
snow showers, mainly VFR cigs are expected at KALB/KGFL/KPOU
through the TAF period with mainly MVFR cigs at KPSF. There is
the potential for cigs to lower to IFR thresholds at KPSF later
tonight.

Mainly northwesterly winds are expected through the TAF period.
Gusts 25 to 30 kt this evening will gradually diminish to 15 to
20 kt later tonight and continue through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Washingtons Birthday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     038-082.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion