Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

133
FXUS61 KALY 182338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
738 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and a few showers finally give way to some afternoon
sun and warmer temperatures, especially south and west of
Albany, as a warm front lifts through the area. A few additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms can redevelop later today with
any storm capable of heavy downpours. Dangerous heat and
humidity returns for tomorrow ahead of a strong cold front which
could result in strong to severe late afternoon thunderstorms
with damaging winds the main hazard. Confidence remains moderate
to high for dangerous heat to return early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a slight risk
  (level 2 to 5) for severe weather tomorrow (mainly late
  afternoon into the early evening hours) as a potent cold
  front tracks eastward across the Northeast with damaging winds
  the primary hazard.

- The combination of hot temperatures and uncomfortable humidity
  on Thursday will lead to heat index values or the "feel- like
  temperatures" climbing into the mid to upper 90s, especially
  in the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield County, CT, into the
  Capital Region. A Heat Advisory for these areas (except
  Litchfield County) will go into effect at 11am Thursday and
  continue through 8pm.

Discussion:
.Update...As of 6:50 PM EDT...Our region remains downstream of
an upper trough, with a surface low well to the west, near the
southern tip of Lake Michigan. Deep SW flow out ahead of these
features has helped lift a warm front to the E/NE of our region
per the latest WPC surface analysis and obs. Behind this front,
we are seeing some convection across the eastern Catskills and
Mid Hudson Valley, as well as across far northwestern Herkimer
County. These areas have the most instability, at around
1000-1500 J/kg per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, but lack of
vertical wind shear has kept these storms disorganized and below
severe limits. The bigger threat is for locally heavy rain with
these storms, as they are slow moving and PWATs are close to
2", especially across the Mid Hudson Valley. WPC does have most
of our NY zones in a marginal risk ERO today, so some isolated
hydro issues can`t be ruled out over the next couple hours.
However, rainfall rates in our forecast area have generally
remained under around 1" per hour based on latest NYS Mesonet
obs, and the trend should be for diminishing coverage of
convection with decreasing instability as we head towards
sunset.

The main change with this update was to reduce PoPs
across the rest of the region where it is not raining. We also
added mention of patchy fog into the forecast tonight, given
high dew points and light winds. Greatest chance for fog will be
in the typical valley areas and for areas that see rain this
evening, especially if there are any breaks in the cloud cover
tonight. All that said, previous forecast remains on track with
more details in the previous discussion below...

.Previous...Storms/showers diminish with the loss of daytime
heating and we should trend drier tonight. With a muggy air
mass, temperatures will not cool much only falling into the mid
to upper 60s with cloudy skies returning.

We remain concerned for both heat-related and severe weather
related impacts for Thursday. An intensifying shortwave trough
and deepening sfc low will advect an even warmer air mass into
the Northeast with 850 hPa isotherms +17C to +20C. Early clouds
quickly give way to morning sun and as southerly winds turn
rather breezy supporting deep boundary layer mixing. The
insolation and deep mixing should support temperatures rising
into the mid to upper 80s, topping out in the low 90s in the
immediate valley areas in the afternoon. WPC`s HeatRisk
continues to show much of our valley areas in its "moderate" or
level 2 categories as well. Between the heat and humidity, we
issued a Heat Advisory for the Hudson Valley from Albany to
Poughkeepsie for tomorrow afternoon.

An amplifying trough progressing out of the Great Lakes will
track into Ontario tomorrow afternoon, resulting in height falls
slowly spreading eastward into the Northeast. As the trough
takes on a neutral tilt, the sfc low deepens in eastern Ontario
and slows down. Overall timing for severe weather since
yesterday has trended later as the best forcing is now delayed
until after 18 UTC. With the main cold front now delayed until
closer to 00 UTC, storms that can develop head of the front
during the mid to later afternoon hours will likely favor storm
clusters or semi-discrete storm mode as strong southwest winds
aloft will result in rather strong deep layer shear values
around 35-45kts. Given the the hot/humid air mass ahead of the
front, the air mass will be primed for severe weather as sfc
based instability exceed 1000J/kg and mid-level lapse steepen
towards 5.5-6C/km. CAMs have trended less ambitious with very
little if any storm development until after 18 UTC which is
likely tied to weaker mid-level lapse rates and delayed arrival
of the trough/height falls. It may take until mid to later
afternoon for even discrete convection to initiate.


By 21 - 00 UTC, the main cold front starts approaching from the
west and straight line hodographs and shear vectors increasing
to 40-45kts, plenty of SB CAPE and shear vectors oriented
parallel to the forcing mechanism should support storm clusters
somewhat organizing into more of a line immediately ahead of the
main cold front. CAMs again are not overly enthused about a
classic squall line developing but ML guidance still show a
large swath of 15% damaging wind probabilities across the
Northeast tomorrow afternoon. Therefore damaging winds is the
primary hazard from any storms which matches with SPC`s
thinking but heavy downpours are also possible given the high
PWATs. Given the favorable set-up and strong forcing for
ascent, SPC maintains a slight risk (level 2 to 5) its Day 2
Convective Outlook over much of eastern NY and western New
England for Thursday. WPC has also blanketed much of the
Northeast in its "marginal risk" (level 1 of 4) for potential
localized flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The trough axis/sfc cold front should finally push through the
region by Thursday evening with the trough taking on a negative
tilt allowing the sfc low to deepen towards ~995hPa. The front
is rather fast moving so the severe threat should end before
Midnight. Once the true cold front/trough axis sweep through by
the pre-dawn hours, winds quickly shift to the northwest and
even turn a bit breezy given the strong dynamics and subsidence
in its wake. Northwest winds advect a cooler and less humid air
into the region which will allow overnight lows fall into the
mid to upper 50s with low 60s in valley areas. Friday turns
quite breezy given strong subsidence in the wake of the
deepening low with northwest winds strengthening to 10-18mph
with gusts up to 30mph in the Mohawk Valley into the Capital
District and western MA. Probabilistic guidance even shows
25-40% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30mph. Otherwise, Friday
will be much more comfortable with lower humidity and seasonable
temperatures in the 70s to around 80 under plenty of sun.

High pressure builds overhead for Saturday giving us a pleasant
start to the weekend with much lower winds. As large scale
ridging from the Central CONUS builds into the Northeast, the
conveyor belt of strong westerly winds along its northern
periphery tracks overhead Sat afternoon resulting in partly
sunny skies. Temperatures also trend warmer and humidity levels
rise higher with highs back into the mid to upper 80s making it
uncomfortable once again. Luckily, not expect us to reach heat
advisory criteria. We continue to monitor the Saturday night
into early Sunday time frame for a potential "ridge roller" as
guidance continues to show a rather potent shortwaves riding
within the fast westerly flow aloft which could support
additional areas of showers/thunderstorms or even an MCS
(depending on the track). ML guidance has painted a 15%
damaging wind contour across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with
5% extending downwind into the Northeast. Where any MCS or storm
clusters develop will also depend on the overall track of the
shortwaves and the northern extent of the upper level ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence for a period of dangerous heat and humidity
  early to mid next week. There is greater than 75% confidence
  for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees Monday and Tuesday with
  even 45-50% confidence for high temperatures to reach or
  exceed 95 degrees in valley areas. Heat index values likely
  approach and even exceed 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday.


Discussion:

We remain focused on a prolonged period of hot and humid
weather Sunday through Tuesday as the large anti-cyclone (595 to
600dm 500hPa heights) from the Midwest/Ohio Valley builds
eastward with the hot air dome at its core extending into the
Northeast. Guidance remain in strong agreement for 700 and 850
hPa isotherms reaching 3.5 - 3 standard deviations above normal
per the NAEFS. Such high temperatures in the afternoon reaching
into the mid to even upper 90s combined with higher humidity
values will likely result in dangerous heat index values or
"feel- like" temperatures closer to 100 - 105 degrees. WPC
HeatRisk graphics show widespread "major" heat- related impacts
for Monday and Tuesday. Sensitive populations including the very
young, elderly, and those with pre-existing conditions should
limit time outdoors and avoid any strenuous outdoor activities.
Stay hydrated (even if you are not thirsty) and stay in air-
conditioning, if available. Overnight temperatures will not
provide relief as overnight lows only fall into the 70s in
valley areas (60s higher terrain) with high humidity continuing.
Visit weather.gov/heat for more preparedness information.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Scattered showers through 02Z/Thu could
bring some brief MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs to KPSF, KPOU and KALB.
More widespread low MVFR to IFR Cigs and Vsbys are expected to
develop between 04Z-08Z/Thu with low clouds/areas of fog, and
should persist until 12Z/Thu-14Z/Thu at all the TAF sites
overnight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid Thursday
morning, with mainly VFR conditions then expected outside any
scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Best chance of
thunderstorms ahead of an incoming cold front looks to be
17Z-22Z/Thu at KALB/KGFL, and 20Z-24Z/Thu at KPSF/KPOU.

South to southeast winds less than 6 KT overnight will become
south to southwest and increase to 10-15 KT by Thursday
afternoon with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Winds will be
stronger, and variable in direction in/near thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ052-053-
     059-060-064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...KL

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion