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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 011746 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 146 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... After morning fog burns off, there will be plenty of sunshine for today along with a mild afternoon. Some additional patchy fog is expected tonight, before another sunny, hazy, and warm day for tomorrow. It will continue to be dry and mild through much of the week, with the next chance of rain not until Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE...As of 1030 AM EDT, ares of persistent fog and low stratus in the western Mohawk Valley, Mid-Hudson Valley, and smaller valleys within the Berkshires and southern Greens is finally beginning to break up per latest visible satellite imagery, although clouds in the western Mohawk appear to be slightly slower to dissipate this morning. Have increased cloud cover in these areas, but still expect steady clearing through the remainder of the morning and widespread sunny skies by this afternoon. Areas stuck beneath fog and clouds have also seen temperatures lag slightly, so have adjusted temps downward a few degrees to reflect latest NYS Mesonet and regional ASOS observations. Highs still expected in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the region, making for a very pleasant start to the month of October. See previous discussion below... .PREV DISCUSSION [0630 AM EDT]...The slow moving storm system that has been impacting the region over the past few days has now drifted far enough east offshore southern New England to keep any clouds and precip well east of our area. The nearest band of clouds rotating around this storm system is only impacting Cape Cod and the Islands, allowing for completely clear skies across our area. With upper level ridging and surface high pressure building into the area from the west, it should remain fairly clear into the morning hours for today. With the clear skies, light winds and moist low-levels thanks to the recent rainfall, widespread fog developed overnight, especially within valleys and near bodies of water. Surface obs, spotter reports and web cam imagery shows some of the fog to be locally dense, with visibility under one quarter mile. Have addressed this with a special weather statement and will mention this on social media this morning as well, although the fog occurring during a weekend and in the early morning hours should help avoid widespread travel issues. Fog will linger past sunrise, but will be dissipating towards the mid to late morning hours. Once fog dissipates, it will be a sunny and mild day, as temps quickly warm this morning. After temps starting out in the 50s this morning, they should reach into the 70s by this afternoon thanks to 850 hpa temps warming to around +12 C. Many spots will be close to 10 degrees above normal by this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As is typical for this time of year, some additional radiational fog will develop once again tonight in valley areas, as the continued clear skies, longer nights and moist low levels allows fog to form. There could be a few dense spots once again, but fog should dissipate towards mid morning on Monday. Overnight lows should be in the 50s. Temps aloft look similar to Sunday (perhaps a degrees or two warmer in spots), so highs will be very similar to Sunday, with max temps in the mid to upper 70s by afternoon. While there won`t be much cloud cover thanks to the strong ridge in place, northerly flow could bring in some high-level smoke from wildfires over Canada, so a little bit of a milky haze can`t be ruled out (especially for the morning to early afternoon hours on Monday). Continued dry and quiet weather will continue for Monday night through Tuesday night with fairly clear skies. Overnight lows should be in the 50s each night and some fog will be possible in valley areas. Another very warm and sunny day in expected for Tuesday. With the ridge directly overhead and 850 hpa temps nearing +17 C, highs could reach into the 80s for Tuesday, which could make it the warmest day in the last few weeks and allowing this mid-week warm spell to be one last shot of summer-like weather for the season. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will crest over our region on Wednesday and will bring another mostly clear, dry and warm day. 850 hPa temperatures will be between +16 and +17C or +1 to +2 STDEV per the latest NAEFS. Highs should top out in the lower to mid-80s across most valley areas and mid to upper 70s in the higher elevations. Record highs may be challenged at our climate sites of Albany, Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie with current values of 86F (1891), 80F (1951) and 86F (1941), respectively, for October 4. The upper-level ridge will slide off to the east as an upper-level trough slowly approaches from the west. High pressure also slides off to the east on Thursday resulting in a more south-southeasterly low-level flow. Dry weather should continue though highs will only reach the 70s for most areas with some upper 60s across the higher peaks. A rather potent upper-level trough and surface low pressure system may move across the region later Friday into next weekend. The upper- level trough could become negatively tilted which could enhance rainfall potential across our region. Will run with NBM pops (chance range) at this time as there remains some minor timing differences. Nonetheless, a trend to much cooler and unsettled weather is possible by the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will remain in control through Monday. VFR conditions through at least sunset. Thereafter, potential for ground fog development occurs once again, although it may form a bit later, and may be more patchy than last night. Best potential looks to be between 08Z-13Z/Mon, with IFR/LIFR conditions. Any fog/low clouds should lift by 13Z-14Z/Mon, with VFR conditions then resuming. North to northeast winds 5-10 KT this afternoon, becoming light/variable to calm after sunset. Light north to northeast winds 4-8 KT will redevelop by late Monday morning. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/Picard SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...KL/Rathbun