Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 310853
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly below normal temperatures are expected today into
Wednesday, with mostly dry weather except for lake effect snow
showers for the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. An arctic
cold front arrives toward Thursday night with another round of
snow showers, followed by a bitterly cold air mass for Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 350 AM EST, area of light snow continues across the SE
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT extending northeast into
the Berkshires and southern VT. There are some bands of moderate
snow noted on regional radars upstream across NE PA and the
southern Catskills and tracking east northeast, so a few periods
of moderate snow could occur across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT over the next 1-3 hours, producing localized
accumulations of 1-2 inches.

Elsewhere, areal extent of snow continues to decrease, with
patchy light snow and flurries, especially across Herkimer
County. Some of this is lake enhanced, and may form into a band
across southern Herkimer County over the next 1-2 hours,
allowing for additional accumulations of up to an inch.

The snow across southern areas should taper off between 6 and 8
AM, while a lake effect snowband may impact portions of SW
Herkimer, portions of Schoharie County extending into
central/southern Albany County through mid morning before
weakening and contracting farther west. Scattered additional
accumulations of a coating to less than an inch could occur
during this time.

Some breaks of sun may develop later this morning into the
afternoon, although there will still be intervals of clouds
mixed in.

Winds may become a bit gusty this morning within portions of the
Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires this morning, with
some gusts possibly up to 20-25 mph. Winds may tend to decrease
this afternoon.

Temperatures should only rise slightly from morning temps for
most areas, mainly in the mid 20s to lower 30s, except mainly
teens across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A weak mid level disturbance will track eastward overnight,
mainly producing a period of mostly cloudy skies. There could be
a bit of patchy light snow or flurries late this evening close
to I-84 corridor, although increasingly dry low level air may
inhibit much snow from reaching the ground. Clearing is expected
toward daybreak from NW to SE, which should allow temps to drop
off rapidly before sunrise, especially across the southern
Adirondacks and Lake George/Saratoga region, where some min
temps may reach the single digits above and slightly below zero.

A mix of sun and clouds for Wednesday, with better chances for
sustained sunshine south of I-90. A lake effect snowband is
expected to develop off Ontario by Wednesday afternoon and
continue into Wednesday night, which will impact mainly northern
Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Snowfall accumulations of 1-3
inches will be possible, especially north and west of Old Forge.
Highs Wednesday in the teens and 20s, except lower/mid 30s
within portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Lows Wed night in the
single digits and teens.

Low level ridging builds in for Thursday, as upper level trough
digs into Ontario/Quebec. This should allow for some sunshine
before clouds increase later in the day, along with slightly
milder temps reaching the mid 30s to around 40 for valley areas,
and 20s across higher terrain.

Arctic cold front approaches late Thursday night preceded and
accompanied by snow showers, especially across the SW
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. There could be a few embedded
snow squalls along the actual front, although snow squall
parameters are mainly focused across the SW Adirondacks before
weakening farther south and east. Low temps will likely occur in
the wake of the front Friday morning, after sunrise, with temps
falling into the single digits and teens, except zero to 10
below across the SW Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills Friday into Saturday...

A bitterly cold/frigid Arctic air mass will pour into the region on
Friday with gusty northwest winds. This will be a major, but short-
lived cold outbreak with dangerously low wind chills. Scattered lake
effect snow showers will be possible west of the Hudson Valley on
Friday, but extremely dry air will preclude any organized activity
in our area. A deep upper level trough will settle in across SE
Canada and the Northeast, with the coldest air mass we have seen in
several years(mid Feb 2016). To give some perspective, 850 mb
temperatures are close to the minimum seen in the 30-year model
climate database across our region late Friday into early Saturday.
This equates to temperature anomalies at 850/925 mb of -2 to -4
STDEV. Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Friday with
strong cold advection, bottoming out between -5F and -25F Friday
night into early Saturday morning. With persistent northwest winds
around 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph combined with the frigid
temperatures, wind chill values will drop to -25F to -50F. These
values will likely prompt the issuance of Wind Chill Warnings for
the entire area late Friday into Saturday. Will continue to mention
this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The frigid air mass will persist through Saturday, with highs only
ranging from around zero north to the mid 10s south. Northwest winds
will remain breezy, but not as strong/gusty as Friday. Low
temperatures Saturday night will likely occur early, with warm
advection commencing overnight as S-SW flow aloft increases
substantially. The air mass will modify substantially on Sunday with
zonal flow aloft returning. Highs Sunday afternoon should get back
to slightly above normal levels(upper 20s to upper 30s). Will
mention low chance PoPs for a few snow showers in the warm advection
regime on Sunday. Mild conditions persist into Monday with continued
zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few lingering patches of light snow will move across the
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF sites prior to 12Z. Mainly MVFR conditions
will likely prevail, with some occasional IFR expected
associated with the -SN.

Conditions should gradually improve this morning as high
pressure builds into northern NY and New England. MVFR cigs
should give way to VFR as skies transition from OVC to BKN this
morning mainly between 13Z-16Z. Lower level clouds should become
at least SCT by this evening, with mid level clouds already
increasing associated with a weak disturbance approaching from
the west. VFR conditions should still prevail this evening
through 06Z Wednesday.

Winds will be north-northwest around 5-10 kt with gusts of
15-20 kt developing at KALB/KPSF after 12Z today. Winds will
decrease to around 5 kt or less this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record lowest high temperature for February 3rd (Friday)

Albany, NY: 6 degrees set in 1955
Poughkeepsie, NY: 13 degrees set in 1955
Glens Falls, NY: 3 degrees set in 1955

Record lowest temperature for February 4th (Saturday)

Albany, NY: -13 degrees set in 1978
Poughkeepsie, NY: -10 degrees set in 1985
Glens Falls, NY: -22 degrees set in 1978

Record lowest high temperature for February 4th (Saturday)

Albany, NY: 3 degrees set in 1886
Poughkeepsie, NY: 14 degrees in 1948
Glens Falls, NY: 4 degrees in 1908

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
CLIMATE...CS

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion