Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 042358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
658 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase with some showers impacting
locations southeast of the Capital Region overnight.  A weak coastal
low will overspread showers into the region tomorrow giving us a
cloudy and dreary day. We briefly dry out Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning before a moisture rich disturbance passing off the
New England coast results in widespread steady rainfall Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Dry weather returns for the end of
the week but we are keeping an eye on another potential system for
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE as of 619 pm EST...Very mild early evening with temps
in the mid 40s to mid 50s. CLouds are thickening and lowering
across the region ahead of a coastal low approaching from the
Mid Atlantic Region. Some adjustments with clouds/sky cover and
temps trends. We also made timing changing to the light rain
showers moving in ahead of an inverted trough well after
midnight based on the latest CAMS trends.

PREV DISCUSSION [421 PM EST]...Record high temperature reached
at Albany this afternoon hitting 60 degrees. The record high for
today was the lowest of all the daily records in the month of
March at only 59 degrees set in 1919. Glens Falls is close to
tying the daily record with a high so far of 55 degrees and a
daily record of 56 set in the same year. Otherwise, forecast is
on track. See below for more details.

Any partly clear skies tonight will fade behind an approaching
mid-level cloud canopy approaching from the south associated
with an incoming coastal low. Most of night luckily should be
dry as the main moisture and warm advection remains to our south
overnight. With cloudy skies in place after a mild day,
overnight temperatures will be remain mild with lows only
dropping into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A coastal disturbance from the mid-Atlantic and associated weak
upper level shortwave will track northward into the Northeast
tomorrow. While most of eastern NY and western New England
starts the day off dry, rain quickly advances from south to
north as the system`s 40-50kt low and mid-level jet noses into
southern New England. This jet will also funnel a healthy
moisture plume with PWATs 1 - 1.50" (3.5 standard deviations
above normal per the NAEFS) from the western Atlantic northward.
The combination of increased isentropic lift and moisture
advection will result in rain overspreading the region from
south to north tomorrow morning into the afternoon. After an
initial push of steady/moderate rain tomorrow morning, guidance
does show some mid-level dry air wrapping into the system as the
upper level shortwave becomes sheared out. Thus, rain should
decrease in intensity for a period tomorrow afternoon before
picking back up again by the evening commute as the parent
shortwave and associated cold front track from southwest to
northeast through the region. Given widespread cloud coverage
and periods of rain through the day, temperatures should be
much cooler tomorrow compared to Monday with highs only in the
40s. Total rainfall amounts range 0.25 - 0.50" with lower rain
amounts only 0.10 - 0.20" in the western Adirondacks which
should be farther removed from the coastal low.

We will have a break from the wet weather Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the coastal disturbance exits to our east
and weak subsidence and high pressure builds overhead. Some
partial clearing expected which should help cool temperatures
into the upper 30s to mid-40s.

A cold front from the Great Lakes will be advancing eastward
during the day Wednesday and its associated rain showers should
reach our western Adirondack zones Wednesday morning before
pushing further east down the Mohawk Valley and eventually
towards the Capital District Wednesday afternoon. Southerly
winds ahead of this boundary should usher a very mild air mass
northward with 850hPa isotherms rising to +7C to +8C. Depending
on the strengthen of the low- level inversion and if any breaks
of sun can occur ahead of the front, we could see very mild
temperatures once again. Current forecast shows highs reaching
into the mid to upper 50s throughout much of eastern NY and
western New England east of the western Adirondacks where the
cold front arrives early enough to stifle warming. High
temperatures here likely struggle to rise out of the 40s.

Meanwhile, a potent and moisture rich southern stream shortwave
from the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic will be progressing north
and eastward during the day Wednesday. Increased warm air and
moisture advection once again will help promote widespread rain
showers but these showers look delayed until late Wednesday
afternoon and should initially advance into the eastern
Catskills, mid- Hudson Valley, and Litchfield County. Given that
the aforementioned cold front may only reach the Capital
District Wednesday afternoon and the rain from the southern
stream disturbance is delayed until late afternoon, areas south
of I-90 should see a good amount of dry time during the day
Wednesday.

Wednesday night will feature widespread rain, even moderate to
possibly heavy at times south of I-90, due to both favorable
upper level dynamics and strong moisture advection. The incoming
sfc low associated with the southern stream shortwave becomes
better organized and deepens a bit as it reaches the Atlantic
Wed night in response to increased cyclonic vorticity advection
and increased upper level divergence as the low resides in the
favorable equatorward entrance region of the 300hPa jet
positioned over southern Canada. In addition, the deepening sfc
low will promote a 40-50kt southerly jet that will direct a
plume of rich moisture from the western Atlantic into southern
New England once again. The coastal low should track along the
aforementioned cold front Wednesday night with enhanced FGEN
along the thermal gradient and PWATs reaching 1-1.5" promoting a
period of steady moderate rainfall for most areas south of
I-90. A tight QPF gradient looks to develop along the thermal
gradient with areas north and west of Albany missing out of the
moderate/steady rainfall as they remain displaced from the sfc
low and moisture plume.

Guidance suggests the strong dynamics and rich moisture should
lead to a heavy rainfall axis but latest trends point to this
axis setting up just to our east into southern New England
where an inverted trough develops. Probabilistic guidance from
the ECMWF and GFS shows potential for the heavy rain to potentially
clip Litchfield County with 40-50% probabilities for >1" of QPF
Wed night. This matches up with WPC`s latest ERO which still
places Litchfield and Dutchess County in its marginal risk for
excessive rainfall Wed into Thurs. Our current forecast shows
this event resulting in a soaking rainfall Wed night with
amounts ranging 0.50 - 1 inch mainly near and south of I-90 with
locally higher up to 1 - 1.5" in Litchfield County. Areas north
and west of the Capital District should see lower amounts
ranging 0.25 - 0.50 inches. While river rises are expected in
response to this rain event, latest RFC forecasts keep all
forecast points below flood stage. Current forecasts stop at 12
UTC Thursday so we will monitor trends as the forecast extends
out in time and shows the crest heights. Luckily, most of the
snow pack is gone so we will not have to contend with additional
runoff from snow melt for this event.

Rain shower linger into Thursday morning as the shortwave
tracks overhead and sfc low slowly tracks just off the NJ and
Long Island coast. However, rainfall rates should be weaker
compared to Wed night as the inverted trough remains even
further to our east. Most of the rain should end by Thursday
afternoon but there remains some discrepancies among the
guidance on exactly when the rain ends given differences on the
strengthen of the upper level shortwave. Thus, we trend POPs to
just low end chance and slight chance for Thurs P.M. Breezy northerly
winds behind the coastal low should funnel cooler air into
eastern NY and western New England with daytime highs Thursday
only reaching into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We end the work with a quiet stretch of weather Thursday night
through Friday as high pressure and upper level ridging build into
the Northeast leading to seasonable temperatures. Then, our
attention turns to a complex weather event for the weekend. There
remains quite a bit of discrepancies and spread among the
determintic and ensemble guidance with how this event will
unfold as we monitor how a potent upper level closed low from
the Upper Midwest interacts with southern stream energy from the
Southeast U.S. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of this event
should help lead to strong moisture advection so this will
likely end up being a rather moisture rich system. However,
exactly how or even if these two feature phase will determine
overall timing, intensity, and even precipitation type. The
northern stream closed low should usher in a much colder air
mass so there is potential for at some snow accumulations,
especially in the higher terrain areas, as temperature trend
colder through the weekend. It is too early to give specifics
but at this point it does look like the Northeast will likely
contend with a moisture rich precipitation event for the weekend
with potential for valley rain with the hill towns and
especially higher terrain to mix with and even turn to snow.
Stay tuned for details as we continue to monitor forecast
trends.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wed...Clouds are thickening and lowering ahead of an
inverted sfc trough associated coastal low pressure near the Mid
Atlantic States. The conditions are VFR at KPOU/KGFL/KALB with
cigs in the 3.5-6 kft AGL range, but will lower quickly due to
the east to southeast flow ahead of the wave. CIGS are in the
high MVFR range at KPSF at 2.5-3 kft AGL. We will see widespread
MVFR conditions prior to 06Z/TUE with cigs in the 1.0-3.0 kft
AGL range.

Some light rain or spotty showers will increase from 10Z-13Z/TUE
KALB south and east with cigs/vsbys possibly into the lower MVFR
/IFR range...especially KPOU/KPSF. PROB30 groups have been used
south of KALB prior to 13Z...and north of KALB 13Z-17Z/TUE.
Expect the rain shield to expand in the late morning into the
early afternoon for all the TAF sites with cigs/vsbys IFR or
very low MVFR. We are fairly confident about widespread IFR cigs
and vsbys in the late morning/early pm. The conditions could
stay IFR until the end of the TAF cycle with low cigs and spotty
drizzle/light rain after 21Z/TUE.

The winds will be east to south at 5-10 KT tonight. They will
vary in direction at 7 KT or less late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon. Except at KPSF where east winds 10 KT or less are
likely.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Speciale/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Wasula

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion