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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 281928 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 328 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will bring a slightly cooler but still dry air mass to the region early this week before warmer air returns for mid to late week. Another cold front will approach the region later in the week into next weekend and may bring our next best chance for some much needed rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Our Rex Block pattern will be in a weakening state through tonight as an upper-level disturbance dives southeastward across Quebec toward Atlantic Canada and a surface cold front approaches from the north. This front is pushing southward and can be seen on visible satellite imagery as a small arc line of clouds stretching from southern Quebec into northern Maine. High pressure will build southward from Quebec behind the front. The front will begin to push through the area tonight, though moisture will be drying up as it does so. As a result, there may be very few clouds accompanying the front as it arrives. Therefore, we expect a clear/mostly clear night with light winds and another fairly ideal radiational cooling night given the still rather dry air mass in place and light to calm winds. We continued the trend from previous nights of adjusting low temperatures closer to the lower end of guidance. Lows in the mid-40s to mid-50s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A backdoor cold front will continue its full southward progression across the area on Monday as high pressure builds southeastward across New England. This will bring a slightly cooler and more marine air mass into the region through Tuesday. Low-level flow will turn east/southeasterly on Monday and then south/southeasterly on Tuesday. 850 hPa temperatures will also fall back to the +10 to +12C range. This will equate to high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s both days. The cooler and more marine air mass should support at least some fair weather cumulus clouds during the daylight hours but still expect skies to remain mostly sunny/clear. Latest hi-res guidance suggests there is the potential for some very isolated upslope shower activity on Monday (within closer proximity to the front) for areas west of the Hudson River (i.e. eastern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley and the southern Adirondacks) but the continued dry air mass should prevent or limit coverage, so will maintain a dry forecast due to low confidence. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Rex Block will by midweek as the upper-level low slowly lifts northward toward the mid-Atlantic region. There remains question how far north that system will get and whether any precipitation on its northern edge reaches southern areas. Overall consensus suggests we remain dry, though we can at least expect an increase in some high clouds on Wednesday, especially across southern areas. 850 hPa temperatures rise to +12 to +14C so Wednesday will turn a bit warmer with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid-80s. The Rex Block will begin to break up later in the week as the upper-level low to the south slowly shears out. Another upper- level feature will dive southeastward across Quebec into Atlantic Canada Friday into Saturday (though actual timing is uncertain) and will drag a cold front southward across our region. There will be greater moisture with this system (Precipitable water values between 1.00 and 1.50 inches in some places) so some showers and possible thunderstorms could accompany the front. Prior to the arrival of the front, it will be quite warm with highs both Thursday and Friday well into the 80s for most with a few 90 degree readings possible. Cooler and drier air returns behind the front to end the weekend. Beyond next weekend, a below normal temperature pattern is favored based on the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center along with near normal precipitation. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the TAF period at all terminals. Clear skies will persist across the region ahead of a back-door cold front crossing the forecast area from north to south tonight. With the arrival of the dry front, cloud cover will increase at 4-6 kft from 06-12Z Monday as the boundary sags southward, but cigs will remain unlimited. No vsby restrictions are anticipated through the period. Winds are currently light at 4-8 kts out of the south to west, and will steadily veer through west to north over the next 6-12 hrs. While speeds diminish to 5 kt or less after 00-03Z Monday, the wind direction will shift behind the frontal boundary to the north and northeast. Northeast to east winds persist at 5-10 kt behind the boundary and through the remainder of the period. Outlook... Monday Night through Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Mostly clear, slightly cooler and dry weather is expected early this week, then warmer air returns for the middle to later part of the week. Next chance for some rainfall is not until later in the week. RH values recover to 70 to 90 percent tonight then lower to 30 to 40 percent on Monday. Light and variable wind tonight becomes east to southeasterly Monday at 7 to 15 mph. Similar RH values are expected on Tuesday with wind a bit more southerly at 5 to 10 mph. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Picard FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun