Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
FXUS61 KALY 011746

National Weather Service Albany NY
146 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

After morning fog burns off, there will be plenty of sunshine
for today along with a mild afternoon. Some additional patchy
fog is expected tonight, before another sunny, hazy, and warm
day for tomorrow. It will continue to be dry and mild through
much of the week, with the next chance of rain not until Friday.


.UPDATE...As of 1030 AM EDT, ares of persistent fog and low
stratus in the western Mohawk Valley, Mid-Hudson Valley, and
smaller valleys within the Berkshires and southern Greens is
finally beginning to break up per latest visible satellite
imagery, although clouds in the western Mohawk appear to be
slightly slower to dissipate this morning. Have increased cloud
cover in these areas, but still expect steady clearing through
the remainder of the morning and widespread sunny skies by this
afternoon. Areas stuck beneath fog and clouds have also seen
temperatures lag slightly, so have adjusted temps downward a few
degrees to reflect latest NYS Mesonet and regional ASOS
observations. Highs still expected in the upper 60s to upper 70s
across the region, making for a very pleasant start to the
month of October. See previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0630 AM EDT]...The slow moving storm system
that has been impacting the region over the past few days has
now drifted far enough east offshore southern New England to
keep any clouds and precip well east of our area. The nearest
band of clouds rotating around this storm system is only
impacting Cape Cod and the Islands, allowing for completely
clear skies across our area. With upper level ridging and
surface high pressure building into the area from the west, it
should remain fairly clear into the morning hours for today.

With the clear skies, light winds and moist low-levels thanks to
the recent rainfall, widespread fog developed overnight,
especially within valleys and near bodies of water. Surface obs,
spotter reports and web cam imagery shows some of the fog to be
locally dense, with visibility under one quarter mile. Have
addressed this with a special weather statement and will mention
this on social media this morning as well, although the fog
occurring during a weekend and in the early morning hours should
help avoid widespread travel issues. Fog will linger past
sunrise, but will be dissipating towards the mid to late morning

Once fog dissipates, it will be a sunny and mild day, as temps
quickly warm this morning. After temps starting out in the 50s
this morning, they should reach into the 70s by this afternoon
thanks to 850 hpa temps warming to around +12 C. Many spots
will be close to 10 degrees above normal by this afternoon.


As is typical for this time of year, some additional radiational
fog will develop once again tonight in valley areas, as the
continued clear skies, longer nights and moist low levels allows
fog to form. There could be a few dense spots once again, but
fog should dissipate towards mid morning on Monday. Overnight
lows should be in the 50s.

Temps aloft look similar to Sunday (perhaps a degrees or two
warmer in spots), so highs will be very similar to Sunday, with
max temps in the mid to upper 70s by afternoon. While there
won`t be much cloud cover thanks to the strong ridge in place,
northerly flow could bring in some high-level smoke from
wildfires over Canada, so a little bit of a milky haze can`t be
ruled out (especially for the morning to early afternoon hours
on Monday).

Continued dry and quiet weather will continue for Monday night
through Tuesday night with fairly clear skies. Overnight lows
should be in the 50s each night and some fog will be possible
in valley areas. Another very warm and sunny day in expected
for Tuesday. With the ridge directly overhead and 850 hpa temps
nearing +17 C, highs could reach into the 80s for Tuesday, which
could make it the warmest day in the last few weeks and allowing
this mid-week warm spell to be one last shot of summer-like
weather for the season.


Upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will crest over our
region on Wednesday and will bring another mostly clear, dry and
warm day. 850 hPa temperatures will be between +16 and +17C or +1 to
+2 STDEV per the latest NAEFS. Highs should top out in the lower to
mid-80s across most valley areas and mid to upper 70s in the higher
elevations. Record highs may be challenged at our climate sites of
Albany, Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie with current values of 86F
(1891), 80F (1951) and 86F (1941), respectively, for October 4.

The upper-level ridge will slide off to the east as an upper-level
trough slowly approaches from the west. High pressure also slides
off to the east on Thursday resulting in a more south-southeasterly
low-level flow. Dry weather should continue though highs will only
reach the 70s for most areas with some upper 60s across the higher

A rather potent upper-level trough and surface low pressure system
may move across the region later Friday into next weekend. The upper-
level trough could become negatively tilted which could enhance
rainfall potential across our region. Will run with NBM pops (chance
range) at this time as there remains some minor timing differences.
Nonetheless, a trend to much cooler and unsettled weather is
possible by the end of the long term period.


High pressure will remain in control through Monday. VFR
conditions through at least sunset. Thereafter, potential for
ground fog development occurs once again, although it may form a
bit later, and may be more patchy than last night. Best
potential looks to be between 08Z-13Z/Mon, with IFR/LIFR

Any fog/low clouds should lift by 13Z-14Z/Mon, with VFR
conditions then resuming.

North to northeast winds 5-10 KT this afternoon, becoming
light/variable to calm after sunset. Light north to northeast
winds 4-8 KT will redevelop by late Monday morning.


Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.





NEAR TERM...Frugis/Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion